Expires:No;;240554 FXAK67 PAJK 260637 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 937 PM AKST Thu Dec 25 2025 .UPDATE.../to add the 06z aviation discussion/... && .PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 451pm AKST... SHORT TERM.../Thursday night through Saturday/...Light snow continues along the southern coast into tonight as the weak low continues moving southeastward towards Haida Gwaii, making the snowfall chances diminish into tonight. Friday will allow for more of a break before the next system arrives, with some clearer skies across the panhandle before the cloud cover begins to move in by Friday night ahead of the front in the Gulf moving in. Outflow winds across the panhandle last through tonight before diminishing into tomorrow, as the low to the south moves southeastward and the N-S gradient lessens before shifting more E-W as the next low moves into the central to northern Gulf. This system will move in Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing gale to storm force winds along the outer coast as the first warm front moves through into Saturday morning. This system will bring heavy snowfall across the panhandle as it pushes through and overruns the colder air in place after the low Thursday night has moved out of the area and colder temperatures return even down to the southern panhandle. This front will bring warmer temperatures across the panhandle from south to north as warm air is advected in from the southwest, both the warm air and deep moisture being tapped into from a deep 500 mb trough to the west digging down to around 30-40N and directing southwesterly flow into the panhandle. Heavy snowfall will begin to transition to rain during the day Saturday into Saturday night, beginning with the southern outer coastline and moving inwards towards the northeast as the front pushes through and winds pick up. Sitka and PoW will see the transition to rain first by the afternoon to evening hours as the winds shift to a more southerly direction and strengthen and the surface warms. The rest of the central and southern panhandle will begin to see this transition to rain Saturday night into early Sunday morning, from S to N. In terms of snow accumulations, there is greater confidence in the amounts for Saturday's snowfall across the panhandle, though some uncertainty still remains depending on if snow transitions to rain sooner or later than expected at this time. The snow will begin to pick up first along the NE Gulf coastline, starting late Friday night into early Saturday morning with rates picking up during the morning and afternoon hours. These areas will see the highest snowfall accumulations Saturday from the high amount of moisture pushing into the area, with between 18 and 22 inches of snowfall expected in 24 hours from Yakutat down the coast to Elfin Cove and Pelican, with rates up to or even above 1 inch per hour at times. The southern panhandle will see snow begin by Saturday morning, with between 6 and 8 inches possible in 12 hours in the morning through the afternoon for some areas, before they transition to rain. The Icy Strait corridor area northward will see snow begin Saturday morning lasting through Saturday night as cold air is expected to remain until Sunday morning as the transition time. Snow will start out fluffy and light Saturday, becoming dense and wetter through the evening Saturday as warm air begins to move in, before the transition to rain. The heaviest snowfall in this area will be for the late morning through the late afternoon, with an expected 12 to 20 inches across the area in 24 hours for Saturday, with the higher end amounts being for the Icy Strait area and less for Haines. Haines will continue to see heavier snow rates into Sunday while the other areas begin to transition to rain and diminish in QPF amounts between the waves moving through. Overall the confidence is increased on the Saturday 24 hour amounts across the northern panhandle and parts of the southern panhandle being greater than 12 inches in 24 hours. LONG TERM...For the start of the long term, low pressure will continue to remain in the Gulf of Alaska with the center near the Prince William Sound/Kayak Island region. This low will be the smaller low off a larger associated low farther south in the Pacific ocean. The first low associated with the weather in the short term period will weaken and merge with the larger parent low that starts to move northward into the gulf bringing the continued weather to the area. With the warm origin of this low, it will track northward with moisture from the sub tropics. This moisture will allow for a continued period of wet, active weather across the panhandle. Temperatures across the panhandle are expected to warm with most places getting above freezing. The exception to this being the Lynn Canal area which will stay below freezing. For the rest of the panhandle, temperatures are expected to warm enough that most places will see a switch to rain. There is some concern for a potential brief period of freezing rain for the Yakutat area during the day on Sunday before switching to rain. This is something that will need to be monitored as we get closer to the event as the timing of warming temperatures could determine how long freezing rain could happen or if it would happen at all. Heading into the middle and end part of next week, we are expected to remain warmer than where we have been allowing for rain until the cold air starts to move back in starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. This return of cold air will likely turn any precipitation that is falling back into snow along with the cooling temperatures. There is still some uncertainty this far out even with the NBM as well as the ensembles so exact details are fuzzy at the moment. AVIATION.../Until 06Z Saturday/...Expect VFR conditions for the northern half of the panhandle through the TAF period. For the southern half of the panhandle, the upper level disturbance is in the process of moving south of PAPG and PAFE which did produce snow showers to MVFR conditions at times. These periodic conditions will improve to VFR in the next few hours. The far southern areas are seeing MVFR conditions right now and with the showers persisting with as the system slides south they may see some periods of IFR conditions. By the early Friday morning VFR conditions will move over the area with clear skies. It will remain breezy for the northern Lynn Canal area, especially near PAGY but the winds will slowly relax by Friday afternoon. Winds elsewhere will be generally lighter. There is some lingering LLWS near 30kt at 1.5kft level near PASI and PAJN that will persist into late Friday morning as the low over the gulf slides SE and cold air advection moves over the area with flow from the north. These winds will relax by Friday afternoon. MARINE... Outside (Gulf): Wave heights continue to trend up Thursday afternoon as NW winds build through the central gulf, with the primary energy focused out of the W-NW at 8-10 seconds near 8-11 ft. Caution advised for mariners transiting major bays/inlets for continued gale force conditions, driving fully developed seas out of the ENE for the majority of our coast. For areas along Cape Edgecumbe toward Cape St. Elias, favoring the coast will limit wave height potential from fetch limitation. Friday wave heights will trend downward for a brief period of time; however, a storm force low is developing near 50N 170W which will move along the Aleutian storm track into the gulf by late Friday. In response expecting storm force conditions to develop along the northern coast into the Fairweather Grounds, with ESE fresh seas near 20-25ft Saturday. SE Strong gale force conditions from Cross Sound toward Cape Decision. Southerly gale force for coast of PoW. Winds remain elevated Sunday into Monday with ESE gale force conditions at times along the northern coast and southerly strong- breeze to near-gales for the remainder of the gulf and coast. Monitoring the potential for a secondary low quickly transiting along our coast Mon/Tue freshening up winds to gale force for coast. Inside (Inner Channels):Gale force conditions continue to build for Lynn Canal and Glacier Bay, with web cameras showing strong- gale force conditions and heavy freezing spray for Taku Inlet. Northerly gale force conditions will hold through Friday morning before trending down; a sign of the approaching storm force low in the gulf. Winds become southerly for the inner channels south of Icy Strait, building to strong breezes to gale force conditions by Saturday afternoon, along with heavy snowfall. Southern Clarence will likely see strong gale force conditions for several hours Saturday evening. Lynn Canal is now forecasted to be moderate to fresh breezes out of the north Saturday and Sunday, building to gale force Monday. HYDROLOGY...A rain on snow event is expected for the area starting late Saturday into early Sunday starting for the southern panhandle. Temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 40s to low 50s through the southern panhandle as well as snow levels increasing to around 6,000 to 7,000 ft. Farther north, the temperatures for the central panhandle and Icy Strait corridor warm up to the mid 30s to low 40s while snow levels warm up to 3,000 to 4,000 ft during this time as well. Most of this warming is expected to occur during the day Sunday into early Monday. 24 hour rainfall amounts on Monday are expected to reach up to 2-4" of rain during the day for the southern panhandle while farther north, 24 hour totals are closer to 1-2" of rain. With the significant snow amounts on the ground as well as what is expected to fall during the weekend, the snow melt from rain will need to be watched during the start of next week. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ317-322. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 PM AKST Friday for AKZ318. Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ318. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ318. Winter Storm Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ319>321-325. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ323-324-327-332. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ326- 328>330. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ328. Winter Storm Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM AKST Sunday for AKZ331. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011>013-031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ033. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ053. Gale Warning for PKZ011>013-022-031-033-053-641>644-651-661-663- 671. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-032-034>036-652-662-664-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...Contino LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...ABJ MARINE...AP HYDROLOGY...SF Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau