Expires:No;;326859 FXUS61 KBTV 271808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 108 PM EST Sat Dec 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold and dry conditions will continue through the day tomorrow. A powerful low pressure system tracking to our west will bring a period of freezing rain Sunday night into Monday, eventually transitioning into plain rain. On the backside later Monday into Tuesday, it will cause strong winds and chances for snow showers. Blustery and cold weather with additional snow shower chances will persist into the new year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 106 PM EST Saturday...Clearing has been gradually occurring during the morning and most areas should see clear skies by late afternoon. Temperatures will be well below climatological normals, but with light winds, there will not be much of a wind chill and it should not feel overly cold. A strong temperature inversion develops tonight as radiational cooling will cause surface temperatures to drop fast, and warm air advection aloft will raise temperatures higher up. Temperatures should drop down into the single digits above and below zero, though the coldest spots in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could drop into the negative teens. The inversion will remain in place during the day tomorrow, and it could lead to a unique setup where the highs in the Champlain Valley are colder than the Adirondacks and higher elevations of Vermont. The mountains may end up being the warm spots. Temperatures will drop slightly in the evening but increasing cloud cover and boundary level wind will prevent too much of a fall, though they will still drop several degrees below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 106 PM EST Saturday...A quickly deepening low pressure system will move northeast into the Great lakes region and occlude Sunday night into Monday. A secondary low will begin to develop just south of the region and likely become the primary low as it moves up into Atlantic Canada. With cold temperatures at the onset and lingering effects of a polar high to the north, the precipitation with the initial warm front will fall as freezing rain for most places Sunday night. A substantial warm nose will prevent snow on the front end. As warm air advection continues going through Monday morning, temperatures at the surface will gradually warm above freezing. This will likely start in parts of the northern Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, before eventually reaching the St. Lawrence Valley and protected hollows east of the Green Mountains last. Overall, ice accumulations look to be in the 0.2-0.4 inch range for most places, with a bit less in the Champlain Valley and parts of the northern Adirondacks. The most favored areas could see up to around 0.5 inches. Some model uncertainty remains with QPF and temperatures, and most of it is related to the development of the aforementioned secondary low. A quicker development, as long as it continues to be favored south of the region, will significantly cut down on the warm air advection and southerly surface winds, something like the HRRR and RRFS currently show. This would lead to freezing rain hanging on into the afternoon in many areas, and it would probably add another tenth or two of an inch to the ice in the forecast. The forecast and model guidance is generally clustered around the warmer solutions so significantly lower amounts do not look likely, though parts of the Champlain Valley and other areas that warm up quickly in southerly winds could definitely see less. Temperatures should rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s briefly in the afternoon for most places. For more mixed areas this will likely happen right before the cold front, while in eastern Vermont it will likely occur right behind the cold front as the surface cold air scours out. Cold air advection will be quite strong behind the front and everywhere should see temperatures falling below freezing by late Monday evening. Gusts will generally be in the 25-40 mph range, though locally higher winds are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley and far northern Adirondacks. This could present problems if the colder guidance verifies and temperatures in the coldest areas do not rise above freezing and ice remains on the powerlines and trees. As the cold front moves through Monday afternoon and evening, a few heavy convective snow showers are possible, especially across northern areas. A quick coating is possible from these. Continued snow showers will occur Monday night from wrap around moisture and brief lake enhancement over parts of northern New York. These snow showers will gradually transition into upslope snow showers heading into Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 106 PM EST Saturday...A wintry weather pattern is expected throughout much of next week, as several disturbances continue to bring cool weather and chances of snowfall to the region. Departing low pressure on Tuesday will bring some breezy winds, along with some lake effect snow off Lake Ontario and some lingering upslope showers. A weak shortwave will reinvigorate snow showers across the region Wednesday into Thursday, which may make for some slick travel for New Years Eve. Cyclonic flow across the region looks to continue to bring additional chances for snow, primarily across the higher terrain. Temperatures throughout this time period will be on the cool side, with highs in the teens and low 20s and overnight lows generally in the single digits above and below zero. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18Z Sunday... Mostly VFR conditions prevailing across the forecast area this afternoon, although some clouds across northern New York have lead to some MVFR conditions. Conditions are expected to remain VFR throughout most of the forecast period, with light winds and relatively clear skies. Guidance continues to suggest some low stratus and/or fog developing at KSLK tonight, bringing the concern for a period of IFR conditions, with a TEMPO group utilized for now to capture this potential. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the next 24 hours. Outlook... Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite FZRA. Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Definite FZRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: MVFR. Chance SHSN. New Years Day: VFR. Chance SHSN. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz. The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for VTZ001>011-016>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski SHORT TERM...Myskowski LONG TERM...Kremer AVIATION...Kremer EQUIPMENT...Team BTV