Expires:No;;210128 FXUS63 KJKL 251746 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1246 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near-record warmth is expected Friday through Sunday, with highs generally in the 60s and peak values potentially reaching 70 degrees in some locations. - Multiple rounds of showers will impact the region today into Friday night, though Saturday should be mostly dry. - A sharp cold front will cross the area late Sunday night to early Monday, with temperatures plummeting to well below freezing by Monday evening. - Southwest winds will gust as high as 25 to mph on Friday, with stronger gusts greater than 30 mph possible with Sunday night's frontal passage. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1111 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025 No major changes to the forecast as it has been on track. Only tweaks were adding the latest surface obs and touching up the PoP based on latest radar trends. Morning text and radio products have been updated to reflect the changes and grids have been sent to NDFD servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 520 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025 Early this morning, an upper level ridge was centered in portions of the Gulf to the Southern Plains and also extended into the Southeast Conus while the axis of ridging extended north through the Central Conus/Plains and into Canada. Further north and northeast an upper level low was centered northeast of Hudson Bay with the upper level trough extending into Quebec to portions of the Northeast. A shortwave trough moving around this ridge was working across the middle and Upper OH Valley region. Meanwhile, an upper level trough was west of the west coast of the Conus with multiple moving out of this trough and around the ridging in the Central Conus. One of these shortwaves of note extended from BC into MT and WY. At the surface, a wave of low pressure was tacking through the OH Valley with the warm front having shifted east of eastern KY into WV while the systems cold front was sagging toward the OH River. The western end of this frontal zone extended west from the Lower OH Valley to portions of the Central Plains to MT. Multiple sfc waves were also along that portion of the boundary. Over eastern KY, some showers have moved across portions of the area, but convection has been more robust in OH and WV nearer to and north of the frontal zone. Many valley locations in the east (especially northeast) that decoupled had cooled off into the 40s have warmed into the 50s though some valley locations still linger in the upper 40s. Otherwise, coalfield ridgetops in these area were around the 60 degree mark as were areas of more open terrain near and west of the Daniel Boone NF. Today, the shortwave trough will move southeast and carve out an upper trough from Quebec across sections of the Northeast to east of the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the upper ridging extending from the Gulf into the Central Conus will weaken with the axis of the trough reaching the MS Valley to western Great Lakes vicinity near sunset this evening. This weakening will occur as the shortwave trough over western Canada into the MT vicinity and another weaker one move to the Canadian Prairies/International border vicinity. The upper ridge is progged to remain centered over the Gulf to Southern Plains vicinity tonight with the axis to the north moving east though further weakening with a trend of height falls at 500 mb that will begin later today continuing into the night. As this occurs, the initial shortwave trough near the US/Canadian border should reach the western Great Lakes to upper MS Valley by late tonight. Meanwhile, the sfc wave currently over the OH Valley will trek to the mid Atlantic coast today with the trailing front sagging south back into the Commonwealth but stalling there as sfc high pressure passes across Ontario to Quebec and sections of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, as the shortwave near the US/Canadian border treks toward the Great Lakes/Upper MS Valley, a sfc wave should track across portions of the Plains today reaching the Quad Cities vicinity late tonight. Downstream of this wave, the wavering frontal zone should return back north as a warm front as the night progresses. This will put the region back into the warm sector leading into Friday. With the wavering boundary in the vicinity scattered showers are anticipated at times through today and into tonight. Moisture will continue to persist generally below 700 mb during this timeframe with the boundary in the area. Mild temperatures, with readings generally 15 to 20 degrees above normal will persist despite continued low clouds. For Friday, the shortwave trough that will near the Great Lakes late tonight will continue across the Great Lakes region on Friday reaching the eastern Great Lakes as the period ends. Meanwhile, the sfc low should track across IL, IN, and OH and near the KPIT vicinity early Friday evening. The region will remain in the warm sector during the day, though the wavering frontal zone will again begin to sag toward the OH River by late in the day. As the ridging further weakens and there are additional height falls, the westerlies will increase in magnitude as the sfc low passes to the north. Eventually as the day progresses there will be an increase in the moisture below 700 mb and the moisture transport magnitude and this is currently anticipated to result in an increase in shower activity as well as coverage of this activity during the afternoon to early evening on Friday. Bufkit momentum transfer and convective allowing models suggest that in the warm sector on Friday with daytime mixing wind gusts from midday through the afternoon should exceed NBM deterministic values. Values exceeding the NBM 90th percentile appears probable that wind gusts to at least 25KT if not the 25 to 30KT range for peak gusts will occur in several locations. Wind gusts were trended higher nearer to the 90th percentile values. However, with the Consshort wind gusts, 00Z HREF mean gusts, and wind gusts in recent HRRR runs suggesting higher as does the Bufkit momentum transfer particularly in the GFS, these values may ultimately trend higher than forecast. The potential for wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger was added to the HWO this cycle. These southwest winds over the higher terrain near the VA will also have a downslope component off of Black and Pine Mountains and Max T for places such as Harlan, Cumberland, Whitesburg, and Elkhorn City was adjusted to higher than the NBM deterministic though Max T ultimately could be higher in these areas on Friday. Highs on Friday should reach 20 or more degrees above normal on average. As hinted at earlier, isolated to scattered showers are possible through much of the day, with chances for showers increasing in the afternoon and evening as the sfc low tracks near the OH River and deeper moisture/higher PW air moves in. .LONG TERM...(After midnight Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 637 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025 While the beginning of the long term forecast period continues to be defined by unseasonably warm temperatures and periodic precipitation chances, a significant pattern shift is in store early next week. Progressive northwesterly to westerly flow around the northern periphery of the past week's dominant mid/upper level ridging will persist for a few more days. As weaker disturbances navigate through this flow, a series of frontal boundaries will pass through the forecast area. These initial fronts appear fairly weak; they will produce little day-to-day change in the sensible weather forecast for Eastern Kentucky. However, a stronger system looks to impact the commonwealth early next week. While there remains some uncertainty in that system's forecast details, it is poised to usher a much colder airmass into the forecast area on Monday. Temperatures will go from 20-25 degrees above normal values at the start of the period to 5-10 degrees below normal at the end of the period. The colder airmass also looks much drier, which further reinforces the notion that the final frontal passage will yield more noticeable changes in the region's sensible weather forecast. The period opens on Friday night with a weaker cold front sagging through the forecast area. Ongoing scattered light rain showers will accordingly taper off from NW to SE overnight, as will the gusty winds discussed in the short term section. Forecast guidance collectively depicts the magnitude of Friday's winds/gusts decreasing after sunset, and winds should shift towards a more westerly/northwesterly orientation post-fropa. It is plausible that the front will not make it all the way through the forecast area by Saturday morning, as the weak shortwave troughing aloft will quickly be followed by ridging and midlevel height rises. This yields somewhat of a split forecast on Saturday, with a 10 degree temperature gradient across the forecast area. Locations north of the Mountain Parkway are more likely to be in the cooler post- frontal regime, with morning lows near 50 and afternoon highs closer to 60. Further to the south, warmer MinTs in the mid/upper 50s will give afternoon highs a head start. Expect highs in the mid/upper 60s south of the Mountain Parkway, with a few readings closer to 70 possible closer to Cumberland River Basin. The proximity of the midlevel ridge favors drier conditions and light and variable winds during the daytime hours on Saturday, but active weather returns on Sunday. The ridge axis propagates further to the east on Sunday morning, when a deeper upper level trough is forecast to dig into the Great Plains. Its surface reflection, a strengthening wave cyclone, will eject out of the Southern Plains and into the Great Lakes states as the day progresses. Together, these synoptics set up a deeper warm air advection and moisture return regime over the forecast area. The strengthening low level jet out ahead of this system will push a warm front through the area on Sunday morning, resulting in renewed precipitation chances and increasing temperatures. A few elevated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the Bluegrass with this system's warm frontal passage, but the greatest sensible weather impacts from this system will come from the system's trailing cold front later that evening. Gusty SW return flow will pump Sunday afternoon's temperatures into the upper 60s/lower 70s across the entire forecast area. This will correspond with a corridor of marginally-favorable instability for potentially stronger thunderstorms ahead of the system's cold front, but the forecast guidance suite continues to trend that frontal passage later and later. It is looking increasingly likely that FROPA will not align with diurnal temperature maximums, which should mitigate the risk for widespread severe weather in Eastern Kentucky. However, a further-strengthening 850mb jet (peaking between 50 and 55 knots on Sunday night) will pump increasing amounts of moisture into the region on Sunday night and allow convective showers to persist. Shear parameters are marginally favorable for organized convection, and a linear band of gusty showers could set up immediately ahead of the best frontal forcing on Sunday night. BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings and deterministic wind gust data continue to suggest that winds between 30 and 40 knots are possible with this activity. This is more than enough to cause nuisance-level impacts to outdoor furniture, trash cans, and holiday decorations, but if a nocturnal low-level inversion emerges, the strongest winds may remain elevated above the surface. As higher-resolution guidance begins to resolve this system this weekend, these convective details will become more clear. Storm total QPF remains in the 0.5 to 0.75 inch range with this forecast package, a beneficial wetting rain. Thus, the most noticeable impacts from this front will come from the significant decrease in temperatures expected behind it. The post-frontal cold air advection with Sunday's system continues to look quite potent, with 850mb temperatures steadily dropping to near or below -10 degrees Celsius by Monday evening in the 00z model data. Due to the trend towards a later frontal passage with each passing model run, there is a significant degree of model spread in the ensemble output for Sunday night and Monday afternoon's surface temperatures. Monday's temperatures may not follow the traditional diurnal curve, with highs occurring early in the morning. For now, the Min/Max T grids were matched to what was in the hourly NBM, but it is important to note that the exact values are hard to pinpoint amidst 9 standard deviations of model spread. Regardless of the precise thermometer readings, blustery surface winds out of the west and northwesterly flow around the backside of the troughing aloft will advect a much colder, but drier, continental airmass into the region. Precipitation could end as light snow showers or flurries on Monday, but little to no accumulation is forecast. The cold continues on Tuesday, when high temperatures will struggle to warm above freezing. With lows in the teens/near 20, this marks a 30- 40 degree temperature swing relative to earlier in the forecast period. Such values are near to just below climatological averages for late December in Eastern Kentucky, which are highs near 45 and lows near 30. West-northwesterly flow around the base of broader troughing should keep conditions dry through New Year's Eve, and temperatures are expected to moderate to near-normal values for the start of 2026. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025 MVFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this issuance. Showers are developing along a stalled boundary and will gradually shift southward but low CIGs associated with the stalled boundary is keeping terminals MVFR. No improvement is expected through the TAF window as the boundary stays nearly stationary keeping showers and low CIGs over the area. Winds are forecast to be light and variable through much of the period; however, winds are forecast to increase after 12Z/Saturday as a boundary crosses the area. Sustained southerly winds around 10 knots with gusts 15 to 20 knots can't be ruled out through the rest of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...VORST SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...MARCUS AVIATION...VORST