Expires:No;;688225 FXUS63 KMPX 022315 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 515 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow likely overnight into Saturday morning with accumulations around half an inch. Freezing drizzle could mix in at times across western Minnesota. - Another wintry mix of snow, sleet, & freezing rain likely Sunday. - Warmer with above-freezing temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 Cloud cover continues to increase over the region this afternoon as upper level forcing increases from a strengthening jet streak nosing into the north-central CONUS. The forcing from the exit region of this jet peaks overnight, and is expected to generate a swath of light precipitation into tomorrow morning, mainly across the central 2/3rds of Minnesota & western Wisconsin. There will be some residual dry air near the surface that will have to be overcome for snow to accumulate, but the incoming stratus looks to be solidly within the DGZ & should allow for dusting amounts of around 0.5" to eventually accumulate by early to mid-morning. A chance for some freezing drizzle is possible at times overnight across southwest Minnesota, where weaker forcing from the jet streak means we could lose enough lift for ice crystal development. Roads could be slick CWA-wide tomorrow morning with the cold temperatures and during of snow, but pay extra close attention to the road conditions if traveling across far-western & southwest Minnesota. Temperatures gradually rise through the weekend as ridging develops behind the departing jet streak. Highs Saturday should range from the teens across central Minnesota to near 30 across southwest Minnesota, with an even warmer day Sunday as much of southwest and southern Minnesota reaches or exceeds freezing. A secondary jetstreak then strengthens along a more southerly branch of the jet stream throughout day on Sunday, eventually generating another round of precipitation by mid-day Sunday through Sunday night. Where & when exactly the precipitation falls will depend on the timing of the upper level forcing from the jetstreak, but are generally highest the farther north & east you go into Minnesota & across the northern half of Wisconsin. The warmer temperatures with this second round suggest that a wintry mix of precipitation is possible, with mostly snow expected across central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin, while the chances for more sleet & freezing rain increase the farther south into Minnesota & Wisconsin one goes. Forecast soundings currently suggest sleet would be the most likely "mixed" precipitation type based on the depth of the remnant cold air across central/northern Minnesota & western Wisconsin, but it's hard to really pin down subtle upper level thermal features like this more than a day out. Potential snowfall amounts generally look to range from an inch or two across east- central Minnesota & western Wisconsin, to just a dusting across southern Minnesota - where sleet or freezing rain could mix in at times. Another, more pronounced, bout of ridging builds into the central CONUS next week & leads to well-above normal temperatures through the week as ensemble temperature anomalies are forecast to range between 10-20 F above normal. This would suggest daytime highs at least above freezing, possibly in the 40s at times, & overnight lows generally in the 20s. A few weak waves could bring some mixed precipitation chances (& cooler temperatures) through the week, but generally the weather looks quiet until next weekend when ensemble & deterministic guidances suggests a large system impacting the general Midwest. We're still more than a week out, but AI ensemble guidance does suggests the system taking a track that would produce at least some snow across Minnesota & Wisconsin. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 High ceiling VFR and light winds tonight until snow starts to move into western Minnesota overnight. This will spread to central Minnesota and western Wisconsin by the morning. This is expected to be light snow with an MVFR impact as it falls. Winds remain light and variable with a prevailing wind from the northwest possible at times, most likely during the day tomorrow. Behind the snow some lower ceilings, low MVFR into high IFR, in the morning and lasting into the afternoon. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. S Chc -SN/IFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. MON...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts, bcmg SE. TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts, bcmg W. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ETA AVIATION...NDC