Expires:No;;659986 FXUS63 KDVN 150834 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 234 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday. Record highs are possible Monday (2/16) along with the potential for record warm lows Monday through Wednesday (2/16-2/18). Refer to the climate section for further information. - A changing flow pattern across the hemisphere will create favorable conditions for seasonably strong (990-1000 mb) and strong (980-989 mb) systems over the CONUS for the next ten days. - While there are precipitation chances in the forecast for the second half of next week, they will be spotty in nature which will increase precipitation deficits, worsen drought conditions and bring elevated fire danger. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Another tranquil early morning is in progress. Surface low pressure was positioned well to our south across Arkansas. A weak inverted surface trough and proximity of low level moist axis has fostered some low stratus south/southeast of the QC metro in the wake of departing higher level clouds. Temperatures were being held up in the mid/upper 30s beneath the stratus. Elsewhere, skies were mainly clear and with light to calm winds temperatures were colder ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. We're monitoring for fog where the skies have cleared, with dense fog developing back into central/southwest Iowa and adjacent portions of Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri. Some high level clouds approaching from the Plains attendant to a weak mid/upper level wave will pass through our skies today, while the stratus south eventually scatters out with the result being skies becoming mostly sunny. A surface trough attendant to the passing upper wave will turn winds more westerly today, which will advect in a warmer airmass modified by downslope. Progged 925 hPa temperatures of 7c to 9c mixed dry adiabatically to the surface yields highs from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees, which coupled with the light winds and ample sunshine will make for another fantastic day to get outdoors! Just be mindful and very careful with any outdoor burning due to the persistent dryness and copious dead/dry fuels. Tonight, we anticipate a much milder night with a lifting warm front and developing southerly winds combined with some high cloudiness. Lows look to be mainly in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, which is close to what our normal highs are for this time of year giving a good indication of the anomalous warmth set for Monday. An amplifying upper ridge will build into the region on Monday. This will set the stage for a rather anomalous (EFI .7 to .8 values for max T indicative of an "unusual event") and record breaking warmth in what is likely to be the warmest day of the year thus far. 925 hPa temperatures are progged from 9c to 12c! This supports widespread highs in the lower to mid 60s, with records likely to be broken at several sites including Dubuque and Moline (see climate section below). As is often the case on these anomalous warm days it will be accompanied by gusty winds. NAM/GFS/RAP bufr soundings and hi-res guidance are in pretty good agreement on gusts of 25 to 35 mph by late morning through afternoon from the south/southwest. These winds combined with the dry fuels and anomalous warmth will lead to very high fire danger, and thus outdoor burning is strongly discouraged as these conditions bring an elevated risk of fire spread. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026 Latest deterministic and ensemble means suggest a backdoor front will slip southward into our northern areas, mainly north of Hwy 30 Monday night. Mins Monday night will remain well above average in the mid 30s to mid 40s, potentially near record warm low territory along and south of I-80. A western CONUS shortwave looks to eject from the Rockies on Tuesday while developing a double barrel surface cyclone that tracks from the Dakotas to WI late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strengthening fgen beneath the left exit region of a 140+ kt upper jet will foster rain chances (20-50%) Tuesday night into early Wednesday particularly north of I-80. Can't rule out the potential for spotty convection with a ramping 50+ kt nocturnal LLJ advecting in some elevated instability. Rain amounts look to be overall light and spotty. The potential for more cloud cover on Tuesday could suppress highs some, particularly across our north. Overall, though the message remains of anomalous warmth with IQR of NBM supporting no worse than the 50s north, while expecting 60s south. Elevated fire danger concerns will persist. Beyond Tuesday, there is a general signal for another shortwave and surface cyclone traversing the central CONUS around Thursday into Friday. There remains a lot of spread in the deterministic and ensemble guidance in both the strength and track owing to considerable uncertainty regarding the sensible weather. No changes were made to the forecast Wednesday into Saturday. Precipitation chances unfortunately blanket much of this period as a result of the uncertainty, when in reality we are likely looking at a 12 hour period of PoPs around Thursday with the system and then uncertainty on precip chances late week. Despite the uncertainty, Wednesday has high confidence on remaining above normal with continued elevated fire danger. Thereafter, it looks like trends support a cool down toward more seasonable conditions heading into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the terminals with light winds. That being said, patchy fog is possible overnight into mid-morning Sunday, however we are seeing mid/high cloudiness lingering over the region so this potential will be dependent upon the extent/location of any clearing. In addition, there is a low signal for some lower stratus over Missouri, which could advect/develop northward toward BRL Sunday morning. Will limit any mention of fog and scattered lower clouds to BRL and keep just MVFR visibility restrictions for now, which is where confidence is highest with NBM and HREF probabilities at 50-60%. Certainly can't rule out pockets of fog and patchy MVFR visibility at the other terminals, and lower conditions (IFR/LIFR) at BRL, but just not enough confidence at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Record high temperatures for February 16th Burlington, IA.......68 in 1921 Cedar Rapids, IA.....67 in 1921 Dubuque, IA..........60 in 1921 and previous years Moline, IL...........60 in 1921 Record warm lows for February 16th Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1882 Moline, IL...........38 in 1998 and previous years Record warm lows for February 17th Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years Record warm lows for February 18th Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure CLIMATE...08