Expires:No;;714598 FXUS63 KDVN 031136 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 536 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Risk for a wintry mix Sunday has decreased (<15%). - Above normal temperatures likely for much of next week, with highs in the 50s. - Active/wet period to develop late next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Large 1019 mb surface high centered near KMSP is across much of the upper Midwest early this morning. Water vapor imagery depicts compact shortwave over northeast KS, with deeper moisture and higher radar returns situated just the east of this wave. Closer to home, an expansive area of mid-high level clouds was found over eastern IA and northwest IL. This has kept temperatures steady mainly in the 20s. Another mostly cloudy and dry day is forecast, with high pressure in control. 06z RAP layer RH progs show clouds in the 3-7kft range currently over northwest IA will move east into eastern IA as the day progresses. This will limit our diurnal ranges today, with highs remaining below freezing for most locations. Tonight, surface ridge axis to be overhead leading to a colder night where clouds clear out the fastest. This is currently expected in northeast IA and northwest IL, where low temps to drop into the lower teens. Where clouds linger further south, temps will only drop into the upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 209 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Sunday...the risk of a wintry mix Sunday evening/night has decreased, with most if not all of the precipitation remaining north of the CWA. A compact shortwave to track over the northern Plains and slide east over MN/WI. This will keep the better lift to our north, with just an increase in WAA clouds locally and all 00z CAMs and the latest NBM support this solution. However, the 00z NAM forecast soundings still suggest that there remains a low (<20%) risk of a wintry mix (freezing rain/sleet) in the WAA precip Sunday evening that will need to be monitored. The latest WPC ice accum would support this notion with a possible glaze in northeast IA/southwest WI. Any precip will be brief, light, and out of the area after midnight. Early Next Week...an overall quiet and dry weather pattern is forecast, with the bulk of the passing weather systems remaining outside of the forecast area. A warming trend will be seen beginning Sunday through at least Thursday, with widespread highs in the 40s/50s. 850mb temps will be around 9C 18z Monday which will be near the daily max for the day per SPC climatology. NBM probabilities for high temperatures greater than 45 degrees are now in the 50-100% range along and south of Hwy 30 Monday through Thursday! While not quite record high territory yet (low-mid 50s are records at CID/DBQ), any more warming in future forecasts with no snow on the ground will get us closer. As usual with this time of year, clouds will throw a wrench in the temperature forecast as well. Thursday-Next Weekend...an active period is starting to show up in the latest ensemble and deterministic model data with several waves moving through the highly amplified upper level flow across the CONUS. Varying solutions from a positively tilted trough, phased/un-phased northern-southern stream waves, to a closed low are possible solutions and are expected at this juncture. In any case, an open Gulf combined with large scale ascent will set the stage for heavy precipitation in the warm sector to a possible winter storm on the cold side of the system. The latest NBM 24 hour probabilities (30-40%) for over 0.5 inch of rain have shifted more into central and southern IL, suggesting heavier rain may occur to the south and east. It does appear that behind this dynamic system, we will go back to more seasonable temperatures regardless of what solution verifies. It is after all still January. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 VFR conditions continue across the area under higher level cloud cover. Upstream observations over northwest Iowa shows an area of MVFR ceilings, which continue to expand eastward as model soundings are in good agreement in showing top-down saturation. Confidence has increased in MVFR ceilings for CID (50-60% per the HREF), but confidence is lower (30%) for MVFR conditions elsewhere, so we have pulled the MVFR from DBQ but kept it for CID. Still, ceilings should dip to the low-end VFR/high-end MVFR ranges area-wide. Light and variable winds this morning will turn more northwesterly for a time this afternoon before a high pressure ridge moves through overnight tonight, resulting in another bout of light and variable winds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gross LONG TERM...Gross AVIATION...Schultz