Expires:No;;779020
FXUS63 KDDC 041600
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1000 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through
  Wednesday, with both sunrise and afternoon temperatures well
  above early January normals. 

- The long dry stretch will continue, with southwest Kansas
  remaining dry through at least Thursday.

- A strong cold front is expected Friday morning, followed by
  strong northwest winds and much colder air Friday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the 
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a strengthening lee side 
trough of low pressure is edging eastward through extreme southeast 
Colorado.

Tranquil conditions are likely early in the period as the SREF 
shows a relatively zonal flow aloft persisting across the 
Western High Plains through mid-week. Meanwhile, downsloping 
through much of the period will continue to reinforce a drier 
air mass across the high plains of western Kansas, hindering any
instability. Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast today 
as lee side troughing edges eastward into extreme southwest 
Kansas, bringing about southwesterly downsloping across the 
region, helping nudge H85 temperatures up into the mid-teens 
across much of southwest/central Kansas. With the HREF 
indicating a 30-50% probability of temperatures topping 60F in 
south central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of 
temperatures exceeding 65F in extreme southwest Kansas, look for
afternoon highs generally up into the 60s(F) east to the 70s(F)
farther west. Similar temperatures can be expected Monday 
before a weak frontal passage brings slightly cooler air to 
western Kansas, though staying well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... 
Issued at 1000 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period with scattered cirrus.
Elevated SW winds at the airports at 18z Sun, gusting 25-30 kts,  
will diminish rapidly through the afternoon hours. Excellent 
flying weather is expected for the remainder of the TAF period, 
00-18z Mon, with VFR/SKC and light winds. 

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner