Expires:No;;166896 FXUS63 KDLH 242357 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 557 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather for the majority of Christmas Day. Precipitation chances increase in the late afternoon. - Freezing rain mixed with some snow Christmas night may lead to an icy morning commute for Friday. Temperatures will warm to above freezing in the afternoon. - Another system looks to move through on Saturday bringing a wintry mix to the latter half of the day and into the overnight hours. - Cold air plunge for Sunday with very windy conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Current Conditions/Tonight: Quiet weather conditions this Christmas eve. Surface high pressure is moving across across Canada with mid level clouds streaming across the region. Highs this afternoon have topped out in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Overnight, lows will fall into the 20s across NW WI and single digits over northern MN where clouds are expected to clear out. Christmas Day: The majority of the day will remain quiet as the surface high pressure moves across Ontario. Southeasterly flow at the surface will allow for some isentropic ascent through the region in the afternoon hours, especially along the North Shore. Moisture profiles across the region will slowly start to saturate through the column as well with model soundings holding onto the low level dry air through most of the afternoon. High res guidance is highlighting some light precipitation across the Arrowhead associated with this weak lift in the afternoon. With cold air still in place if we manage to precipitate through this layer the surface would see some light snowfall. Christmas Evening and Overnight: As we head into the evening and overnight hours a weak surface low moves across the Northern Plains and into the Midwest. The overall synoptic dynamics with this system are not overly impressive but it will help to induce an inverted trough moving across the Northland increasing surface convergence for more widespread precipitation. As this low moves across the area it will bring with it warm air in the low levels setting up the region for some freezing rain. The exception to this will be over in the Arrowhead where cold air will remain firmly in place leading to snow being the primary precipitation type. There still remains a high variance in ice accumulations between model runs due to disagreements in thermal profiles paired with how much dry air will need to be overcome. But the overall consensus has most of the region seeing at least a light glaze to 0.05" of ice before Friday morning. This forecast package did go ahead and lower the amount of freezing drizzle based on the latest RRFS soundings only showing a 6 hour window as opposed to the previous 12 hr window. As far as snow accumulations, the Arrowhead is generally in the 2-4" range with the highest at the far tip of the Arrowhead. Friday: The late Christmas weather maker will be moving off to the east Friday morning with precipitation expected to end by the early afternoon. Any early risers looking to beat the holiday traffic may want to sleep in as the roads may still be a bit slick from the previous nights ice accumulations. The good news is that we are looking at quite the influx of warm air through the day with highs in the afternoon warming to above freezing. The Weekend: A low pressure system rides up the Red River Valley through Saturday into western Ontario promoting strong warm air advection across the region. Highs will climb into the mid and upper 30s by the afternoon. As the low migrates NE in the afternoon rain looks to form along the North Shore as southeasterly winds run into the terrain ridge. Overnight, a cold front will sweep in from the west ushering in a precipitation changeover to snow. Amounts at this time don't look to be overly impressive and residence time is rather low with the overall progression of the system. Current estimates are largely between 1-2 inches. Frigid air will pour in from the northwest on Sunday with very windy conditions expected. Temperatures will be crashing through the day and lingering moisture on the backside of the system may lead to some flurries at times. Look for windchills Sunday night into Monday morning to drop into the -10s for NW WI and -20s for northern MN. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 557 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail this evening across the Northland. Around sunrise a lake effect plume of IFR clouds may pass over KDLH and KHIB though may be short-lived as winds turn southerly. Ceilings will gradually lower tomorrow afternoon as the next system approaches. Expect a deterioration to MVFR and eventually IFR/LIFR Thursday evening and overnight as a light mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow overspreads the terminals. Winds will become southeasterly at 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt on Christmas Day. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 North winds tonight around 5 to 10 knots will gradually start to turn to out of the east by tomorrow morning. Winds will continue to increase through tomorrow leading to Small Craft Advisories for most of the Near Shore Waters. East winds will continue to veer to out of the south by Thursday night leading to building waves of 3 to 6 feet along the North Shore. Winds will weaken Friday morning with waves slowly subsiding as well. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 1 AM CST Friday for LSZ141. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM CST Thursday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for LSZ143. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ144>147. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 9 PM CST Thursday for LSZ150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe MARINE...Wolfe