Expires:No;;425934
FXUS65 KFGZ 290900
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
200 AM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Colder temperatures and brisk northeast winds will 
continue through today. Temperatures warm through mid-week with 
chances for showers returning for the start of the New Year. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions and colder temperatures continue today 
with gusty northeast winds hanging around through this evening. 
Expect temperatures to warm each day through Wednesday as a ridge 
starts to build into the region, especially for areas along and 
south of the Mogollon Rim. Areas to the north of the Rim will likely 
remain cooler due to a persistent northeasterly flow aloft, but by 
Wednesday, a more southerly flow will win out and allow for better 
warming to occur. 

The ridge on Wednesday starts to amplify as it shifts to the east 
and a trough/low develops over the eastern Pacific. Models have come 
into better agreement on the placement of the low but still differ 
on how it evolves through the end of the week. The struggle with 
timing and strength is real and make it difficult to have confidence 
in how it may impact Arizona. One thing that seems to be consistent 
is that it will be quite warm across the region so any precipitation 
will likely be rain with snow largely confined to areas above 8000-
9000 feet with any accumulations above 9000-10000 feet. With the 
potential for some showers to be around Wednesday night, you might 
want to plan accordingly if you have any New Years Eve plans. 

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 29/06Z through Tuesday 30/06Z...VFR conditions. 
Winds N/NE 5-15 kts with gusts 20-30 kts downwind of higher 
terrain...including KSEZ, KFLG and KGCN.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 30/06Z through Thursday 01/06Z...VFR conditions. 
Winds generally NE 10-20 kts on Tuesday, becoming light and more
southerly on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...Dry weather will continue 
through early this week. Breezy northeast/east winds at 10-20 mph 
with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Monday will decrease to about 5-15 mph 
on Tuesday. Daytime humidity will drop to between 15-35% each 
afternoon. 

Wednesday through Friday...Moisture will increase on Wednesday with 
another round of rainfall expected from late Wednesday night into 
Friday. Mostly rain is expected with high snow levels around 8,000 
to 9,000 feet. Expect above normal temperatures and light winds 
around 5-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...BAK
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff