Expires:No;;200567 FXHW60 PHFO 251353 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 353 AM HST Thu Dec 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An elongated area of high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain stable trades through Friday, then decrease slightly over the weekend. Shower activity will be limited through Sunday, with main focus along windward and mauka areas. A front will approach with an upper-level disturbance thereafter, stalling just northwest of the islands and may bring an increase of showers and clouds to Kauai during the early part of next week. A slow moving disturbance aloft will produce higher chances of heavy showers during the middle of next week as trades rebuild. && .DISCUSSION... An elongated area of high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands remains set between two flanking areas of low pressure along the US west coast and along the International Dateline will maintain stable and locally breezy trades through the remainder of the week. This stability is well depicted in the latest upper-air balloon soundings launched around 12z (2 AM HST) from Lihue and Hilo, showing an inversion across the state between 5000 and 6000 feet today. As a result, many areas across the state remain relatively drive during the overnight period, with little to no precipitation recorded in the last 24 hours. Trades will begin to decrease in strength ever-so-slightly over the next couple of days as the aforementioned high meanders eastward. Ridging aloft will continue to maintain stability, which lines up really well with the latest model guidance, suggesting dry conditions will prevail across the islands, with the exception of typical windward and mauka showers in association with the trades. Overall, not much change is expected through Friday. As the weekend approaches, trades will ultimately diminish, with remaining winds now veering to the southeast. The ridging aloft will also start to erode away, reintroducing some sense of instability to the islands. Latest model guidance depicts the area of low pressure, originally along the Dateline, will propagating northeastward in the wake of the area of high pressure. As the low continues toward the Gulf of Alaska, it will usher a front into the vicinity of the islands. Models currently differ on the timing and position of the front, with the European model (ECWMF) stalling the front well off of Kauai. Conversely, the American model (GFS) portrays the front stalling overtop of Kauai, supporting a high chance of shower activity to the Garden Isle through early next week. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands should remain mostly dry with the exception of some daytime breezes producing spotty interior showers during the afternoon hours. The remainder of the outlook period is full of uncertainty. Model guidance has been depicting a strong, zonal jet stream in the western Pacific bifurcating just west of the Dateline, both amplifying an upper-level trough as well as the subtropical jet over the state. Guidance displays this trough slowly moving over the state by midweek next week at differing magnitudes of strength, leaving quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. On one hand, this may result in increased instability and heavy rainfall potential; while on the other hand, some model hint at a surface high pressure redeveloping north of the state, suggesting trades reestablish. However, at this time, the uncertain pattern favors unstable and wet trade winds, with greatest emphasis of heavier rainfall over windward and mauka areas. That said, further analysis will be needed to refine the most likely solution given the low confidence. && .AVIATION... Trade winds will gradually decrease over the next few days as high pressure to the north begins to weaken. Limited shower activity is expected, with VFR conditions prevailing. No AIRMETs are in effect at this time. && .MARINE... A high pressure system north of the islands will continue to build a surface ridge over the Hawaii region . Expect keep moderate to fresh trade winds blowing across Hawaiian waters through tonight, then decreasing wind speeds veering from a more southeasterly direction from Friday into the weekend. A low northwest of the islands will drive a weak cold front into the northwest offshore waters this weekend. Wind speeds will decrease and veer from a more southeasterly direction during this time period. Gentle to moderate trade winds return next week in an unsettled weather pattern due to a passing upper level disturbance. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through tonight. Wind speeds will fall below advisory thresholds on Friday and the SCA will likely be cancelled before sunrise tomorrow. A moderate, medium period north-northeast (010-030 degrees) swell continues to boost surf heights along north facing shores through tonight. This swell will peak today just below High Surf Advisory levels, before declining on Friday. A Marine Weather Statement remains in place for moderate harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo through tonight. A combination of the declining north-northeast swell and a small long period west-northwest swell will keep smaller surf in the forecast this weekend. West facing shores will see a tiny, moderate period west swell hold through the day. The next large long period northwest swell is expected over the first half of next week but stay tuned as the next system deepens northwest of the island chain. Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores will gradually declining as trade winds ease over the next few days. Some wrap around energy from the medium period north-northeast swell will create choppy rough surf conditions along east sides of all islands. Surf along south facing shores will remain very small through the week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pierce AVIATION...Pierce MARINE...Bohlin