Expires:No;;225367
FXUS64 KLUB 252322
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

 - Record highs continue through Saturday until a cold front on 
   Sunday.

 - Colder for Monday with slim chances for light snow over the 
   southwest South Plains.

 - Milder temperatures return for Tuesday and New Year's Eve.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Merry Christmas! Temperatures at 11 AM were anything but typical 
December numbers with widespread 70s and and a few low 80s on some 
breezy WSW winds. This downslope flow was in the wake of a surface 
trough that pushed through overnight and was draped from near Gage, 
OK to Abilene, TX. A corridor of stronger 850-700 mb flow was 
evident near I40 per AMA's VWP and this will keep westerly winds 
in the 20-25 mph realm this afternoon across our northernmost 
counties, at least until a weak shortwave trough departs later 
today. Otherwise, deep westerly flow continues tonight through 
Friday morning along the northern fringes of a broad and flat ridge. 
Thicknesses do edge lower for Friday afternoon as our flow aloft 
backs SW in response to the subtropical ridge shifting downstream 
toward the lower Mississippi Valley. Despite cooler highs and 
lighter westerly winds than today, max T's should still eclipse the 
record of 80 degrees at Lubbock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1108 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

A final day of record warmth is likely on Saturday at both Lubbock 
and Childress (records are 76 and 78, respectively) until a cold 
front sweeps south on Sunday afternoon and returns our temps to 
below-normal territory for Monday. The parent trough responsible for 
this front remains quite vigorous as it drives east from the 
northern Rockies on Saturday to the Great Lakes on Monday, but we'll 
only receive the southern periphery of this wave which is progged to 
shear out over the region by Sunday night. What Pacific moisture does
advect east ahead of this wave under a 120 knot upper jet is no 
longer looking sufficient for much more than abundant mid/high 
clouds which will at least serve to keep highs in the 40s on Monday. 
NBM's small pocket of 20 PoPs in our far SW zones for Monday may not 
survive another forecast as a very hostile and dry surface ridge 
deepens through the day which argues more virga than light snow in 
this meager setup. Heights and thicknesses rebound behind the trough 
axis with above normal highs resuming in time for New Year's Eve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12