Expires:No;;392596 FXUS63 KMQT 282012 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 312 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A major winter storm will impact the UP tonight through Monday, with the worst conditions overnight into Monday morning. Heavy snow and high winds will result in very difficult to impossible travel conditions, with blizzard conditions resulting in near-zero visibility at times. Strong winds and heavy snow have the potential to result in power outages. Blizzard Warnings are in effect for most of the UP this evening through Monday. - The heaviest snowfall axis has trended south and east. By Monday evening, in the north-central higher terrain eastward along and north of M-28, there is a 75-100% chance of exceeding 12", locally up to 24". - In the west and Keweenaw, there is now a 40-80% chance of exceeding 12" of snow, locally up to 18". - From Iron through Delta Counties, there is now an 60-90% chance of exceeding 8 inches of snow, locally up to 15". - Gale and Storm Warnings are in effect tonight into Monday night. There is a 70-90% probability of storm force winds over the central and eastern lake, with gusts as high as 60 kt possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 Afternoon GOES water vapor and RAP mesoanalysis reveals the upcoming high impact winter storm lifting north through Chicago as a deep, now cutoff, upper level low digs into the Plains. Radar returns and observations across N WI and far western UP show light snow beginning to overspread the area. Here at our office, weak warm air advection on top of the lingering snowpack has allowed dense fog to form. Light showers are seen stretching into the eastern UP. Some light freezing fog and mixed precipitation may be seen before the quick switch to snow from west to east through the evening. Supported by deep synoptic scale lift within the left exit region of a jet rounding the base of the aforementioned deep cutoff low and the right entrance of a departing jet to our north, intense pressure falls are set to occur as the now 996 mb sfc low pressure continues its northeastward track through lower MI, across Lake Huron, and Quebec tonight through Monday. This places Upper Michigan within the crossheir for strong winds and heavy snow, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions in falling and blowing snow, power outages, and nearly impossible travel over the next 24 hours. Blizzard Warnings are still in effect for much of the UP. Deterministic and ensemble guidance has continued trending the track of the sfc low slightly eastward over the last 24-36 hours. By 12z Monday, ensemble low clusters suggest a central low pressure in the vicinity of Lake Huron around 975-980 mb, near the minimum of NAEFS climatology for this time of year. These values flirt with climatological minimum of MSLP in both the NAEFS and EPS. In terms of raw values, WPC's minimum MSLP database shows all time December mins around 970 around the path of the low, so while it may not be record setting, its climatological context puts it toward the stronger end of winter storms for this area. The eastward trending low track has had very little effect on the going wind forecast, considering the exceptionally tight pressure gradient, 50-60 kt LLJ, and respective pressure falls/rises on the order of 1-2 mb per hour with the low's passage. Morning guidance continues to highlight high probability (75-100% chance) of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph area wide, with ensembles showing similar chances for winds >60 mph over Lake Superior and along the adjacent shorelines tonight through Monday morning. These winds, in conjunction with snowfall rates near or exceeding 1-2 inches per hour, will create blizzard conditions and areas of zero visibility, making travel nearly impossible, especially for Lake Superior border counties. Further south along the WI border, localized blizzard conditions are possible, and an upgrade to BLizzard Warning for Iron, Dickinson, and Menominee counties is still within the realm of possibility, however, this area is unfavorable for widespread blizzard conditions unlike the northern tier of the UP. Given the continued southeast trend in surface low track, the heaviest snowfall axis has shifted this way. By Monday evening, the latest NBM5.0 and 12z HREF suite now suggest in the north- central higher terrain eastward along and north of M-28, there is a 75-100% chance of exceeding 12", locally up to 24". In the west and Keweenaw, there is now a 40-80% chance of exceeding 12" of snow, locally up to 18". From Iron through Delta Counties, there is now an 60-90% chance of exceeding 8 inches of snow, locally up to 15". Snow character will initially start off wet and heavy, but transition to a fluffier snow easier to blow around tonight through tomorrow morning. Lakeshore Flood Advisories are also in effect for counties along Lake Superior where waves 15-20 feet may create flooding and beach erosion hazards. As the storm pulls away, snow tapers off from west to east Monday afternoon into Monday night. A quick-hitting clipper moves back in on Tuesday, resulting in a bit more light widespread snow, but perhaps more importantly, heralds a reinforcing shot of Arctic air for the New Year holiday. LREF mean shows 850 mb temps in the low - 20s (C), which is around the 10 percentile. This would result in wind chills well below zero for the New Year's Holiday, along with northwest flow lake effect snow. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 109 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 Fog, low ceilings and light rain resulting IFR to LIFR conditions continue to be seen at all TAF sites this afternoon. Rain will transition to snow from west to east as a strong storm system moves into the area this evening. This system will bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the area tonight into Monday. Therefore, LIFR and possible airport mins due to falling/blowing snow will prevail for the duration of this TAF period. As this system moves in, northerly winds increase to 35 to 50 kts overnight. The strongest winds will be at CMX where gusts in excess of 50 kts are expected. IWD and SAW will also have gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025 High-impact marine weather is set to occur late today into Monday night as an unusually strong low pressure quickly strengthens over the western Great Lakes and moves into Quebec. Northeast gales quickly develop this evening, then winds gradually back to the N and NW into Monday. There is a moderate to high (60-90%) probability of storms out of the north to northwest over the central/eastern lake late tonight into Monday, with gusts up to 60 knots possible. Risk of significant waves exceeding 20 feet from the experimental National Blend of Models is 70-90 percent east of Marquette toward Pictured Rocks, possibly up to 28 feet, with 12-20 feet elsewhere. Heavy freezing spray and limited visibility in heavy snow is also expected. Gales end from west to east Monday night, but a reinforcing shot of Arctic air across the lake is expected to result in northwesterly gales and heavy freezing spray at times Tuesday night to the end of the week, especially over the central and eastern lake. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ001-003>007-084. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ001. Blizzard Warning until 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ Monday for MIZ002- 009. Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Monday for MIZ002-003-009. Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ005-006. Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ007. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for MIZ010>012. Blizzard Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for MIZ013-014-085. Lake Superior... Gale Warning from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ Monday for LSZ162-240-241. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for LSZ162. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Monday to 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for LSZ240>244-263- 264. Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for LSZ242>244-263-264. Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ245>251-265>267. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 3 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ245>251-265>267. Lake Michigan... Storm Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ221- 250. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 2 PM Monday to 5 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ221. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ248. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...RM MARINE...BW