Expires:No;;282639 FXUS63 KIWX 262351 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 651 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low clouds and areas of fog linger into tonight and Saturday. - Unseasonably mild with periods of rain and a slight chance for a few storms Sunday into Sunday evening. - Turning sharply colder and windy late Sunday night through Monday night with Gales expected Sunday night through Monday night on Lake Michigan. Snow showers are also likely during this time, mainly in far northern IN and southwest MI where difficult travel will be possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 Areas of drizzle and fog will continue near a frontal zone in mainly northern portions of the forecast area this afternoon into early this evening. Subsidence and height rises overspread then into tonight and Saturday behind this frontal wave. However, a sharp low level inversion will likely lock this stratus deck in place, possibly building back down into fog tonight into Saturday morning, best chances southwest of US 30 in Indiana where low level ridging and lighter winds build in. Attention Saturday night through Monday will then turn to a strong upper trough/low that will dig southeast into the North-Central US and northern Great Lakes. This induces a developing sfc low over northern MO and northwest IL on Sunday that undergoes rapid deepening (sub 980 mb) northeast to northern Lake Huron by Monday. Strengthening southerly flow preceding this system will drive unseasonably moist and mild air into the area later Saturday night through Sunday evening with decent model agreement in upper 50 to near 60F sfc dewpoints overspreading on Sunday along a northward advancing warm front. This impressive theta-e surge under overspreading height falls will allow showers and perhaps some embedded thunder to break out during this time. SPC did maintain a marginal severe risk for the Sunday PM hours in our southern zones where a muddled warm sector possibly settles in for the time. Lacking lapse rates through the column limit instability magnitudes, though will have to monitor given the strong wind field and ample moisture. Winter then wraps in later Sunday night into Monday as 850 mb temps drop 20-25C. This colder airmass will not be that unusual for late December. However, the very large and strong wind field under the aforementioned sub 980 mb low will result in windy conditions (a few gusts 40+), along with wind chills possibly in the single digits to near zero degrees for a time. Wrap around moisture within the upper trough axis will also produce snow showers, especially in our favored wnw flow LES belts where several inches of snow in tandem with the strong winds may lead to difficult travel in these areas. Ensembles then continue to favor below normal temperatures and several opportunities for light snow for the remainder of the week as northwest flow locks in on the southwest fringe of a southeast Canada and Northeast US negative upper height anomaly. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 645 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 IFR ceilings prevail as rich boundary layer moisture remains trapped under an inversion. Northwest winds between 6-10kt overnight cast some uncertainty as to FG verses very low stratus, however it's possible LIFR conditions impact terminals, especially in the 10-14Z timeframe. MVFR cigs expected to persist into the afternoon as winds shift southeasterly. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Norman