Expires:No;;780963 FXUS63 KEAX 041657 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy South winds today, strongest over W/NW Missouri and into portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. - Gusts into the 30s mph possible, easing as you move eastward * Warming, above normal, temperatures through mid-week - Highs rising into the 50s to mid 60s - Normal highs are mid-upper 30s * Next chance for precipitation arrives latter portion of next week. - 25-40% chances by Thursday - Greatest chances over E/SE areas * Dry weather returns Saturday with temperatures cooling back toward normal && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Quiet and mostly clear conditions have prevailed overnight thanks to surface high sliding through the region and mid-upper level ridging working into/through the Central Plains. With light winds associated with the passing surface high, a number of locations were able to quickly approach and even surpass (not necessarily in a way people would like) originally forecast lows, settling into the lower 20s and even teens in some locations. Southerly winds and general WAA ramp up across the area today with the eastward departure of the surface high and building Lee Cyclogenesis across the western Central and Northern Plains. A shortwave moving through the mid-upper level flow will push a surface low into/across portions of the Northern Plains today, helping increase the pressure gradient over the western CWA. As a result, wind gusts into the 30s mph will be possible across W/NW Missouri and NE Kansas, easing as you work eastward from there. Certainly short of any Wind Advisory consideration, but breezy/windy nonetheless and will be most noticeable for any travel along E-W oriented highways/interstates. Expect highs upwards of 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday into the 40s/low 50s, with greatest increases over the western areas where WAA/southerly winds will be strongest. Said mid-upper level shortwave today and a series of subsequent shortwaves into the new work week will work flatten the existing ridge and yield a more zonal mid-upper level flow pattern. That will effectively put a cap on how much the area can warm, but not before temperatures rise another handful or more degrees over today. Synoptic guidance and associated ensembles predominantly depict highs ranging from the low 50s to mid 60s Mon-Thur from N to S across the CWA, and that "confidence" is too depicted via NBM output with MaxT spreads of 5 deg F or less through Wed. Dry conditions to broadly prevail during this time as well with strongest/deepest lift displaced northward and general lack of substantial supportive moisture. Late week continues to be the next "good" opportunity for any widespread precipitation chances as a pair of western waves bring more substantial mid-upper level pattern changes. Leading cutoff low remains expected to dive deep down the California Coast and into northern Baja California before beginning to track more due eastward Wednesday. By later Wednesday, another shortwave will begin to dig into the PNW and toward the Four Corners Region by early Thursday. Now, the progression of each and potential interplay seems to muddy the waters some on exactly where and when best precip chances will move across the region. There has been a notable slow down to onset within NBM compared to previous runs, now more toward Thursday afternoon with chances continuing into Friday. Deterministic guidance too suggests a bit more uncertainty in progression/track, most notable in the GFS/GEFS while the Euro and its ensemble appear more consistent when comparing last couple/few runs. Suffice it to say, E/SE areas remain most likely to see appreciable rainfall while W/NW areas remain more uncertain. Regardless of Thursday/Friday precipitation chances, cold frontal passage sometime around the latter half of Friday dry the area back out and push temperatures back towards seasonal norms through the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1057 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 VFR conditions with winds out of the south through the TAF period. High clouds this morning will gradually clear this afternoon. Winds will increase, gusting 20 to 25 kt this afternoon, with gusts shutting down around 00Z holding sustained winds around 08-10kt through the overnight hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...McCoy