Expires:No;;747979 FXUS62 KTAE 040232 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 932 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 932 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions are expected through tonight due to strong southwest breezes ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through late tonight for waters west of Apalachicola. - Uneventful weather is expected from Sunday through at least Thursday. Above normal temperatures will prevail starting Monday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 The threat of any additional severe storms is long gone. The evening update was focused on rain chances based on latest trends. Have also added patchy and areas of fog to the grids late tonight and Sunday morning for most of the region. Some of the fog could actually come as drizzle overnight, until moisture becomes too shallow around sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will prevail through the day today as an upper level shortwave trough passes over the region. The amount of bulk layer shear has decreased since this morning but the low and midlevel instability has increased as temperatures will have warmed to the low 70s. The threats of strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain until the cold front passes later this evening. The tornado threat was always low but it cannot be entirely ruled out. The SPC has the entire region highlighted in a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather. The storm motion is nearly parallel to the trough, allowing for training storms. Rainfall amounts above 2" are possible today in some locations. Although this won't lead to widespread or riverine flooding, there could be some nuisance ponding in urban/low-lying areas. The cold front will pass through the region from northwest to southeast this evening, clearing out the remaining showers/storms. Behind the front, there will still be enough moisture for a deck of stratus clouds and potentially fog to linger into the day Sunday. With the lingering clouds, temperatures for the day are expected to be slightly below NBM guidance with highs in the mid-60s and low 40s for Sunday night. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 Following the frontal passage, upper level ridging will take over with a surface high will be drifting east over the Carolinas. This will lead to light easterly and southeasterly flow over the region. During this time, there will be enough moisture for fog to develop during the morning hours. However, there is uncertainty as to how many mornings we can expect it to develop before the surface high exits. It'll be something to monitor as we progress through the week. As the surface high moves off into the Atlantic, our winds will shift to be more southwesterly, allowing for temperatures to warm as we head towards the middle of the week. Towards the end of the period, there looks to be a large trough with an attending cold front that will cross the country bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. However, the timing and impacts at the moment are uncertain. PoPs for this upcoming weekend are generally around 30-40 percent. We will continue to monitor and provide updates as the system sets up. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 A cold front is slowly sagging southward near the FL state line right now. It is still accompanied by showers and a couple of embedded thunderstorms. Rain has exited all terminals, and it will exit beyond the vicinity of VLD during the next 2-3 hours. After that, post-frontal stratus will be the main concern through midday Sunday. Upstream observations over central Alabama and central Georgia suggest that all of our terminals will have IFR cigs late tonight and most of the way through Sunday morning. There are even signals in guidance suggesting possibility of drizzle for ABY and VLD during the pre-dawn hours, ending as moisture becomes too shallow. Finally after about 16z-18z, cloud bases will lift. What is most uncertain is how soon after that scattering will take place. For the most part, have held off on scattering until mid- afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 932 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 A cold front will push south across the waters late tonight and early Sunday morning, bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms. The front will be followed by a turn to moderate northerly breezes. Winds will clock around on Sunday, becoming easterly by Monday morning as high pressure passes by to the north. A ridge axis will pass south across the waters on Tuesday. Its position south of the waters will bring a turn to southwest breezes on Wednesday and Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 141 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 Beneficial rain has fallen and/or will continue to fall over all districts today. For districts along and south of I-10, rain accumulations may exceed 1" in some locations. During the afternoon, thunderstorms may develop with the potential of generating strong gusty winds. The tornado threat is very low. There is also a hail threat with these storms. Following today's cold front, winds will be northerly and will become easterly by Monday. Dispersions on Sunday will be poor for most districts south of I-10, and low in our AL and GA districts for the afternoon. All around low dispersions are expected for Monday afternoon. Moisture will linger following the front which would lead to potential fog development each morning for the rest of the weekend and into the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 932 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 As forecast, most of the region picked up beneficial rains of between 1/4 and 3/4 inch of rain today. Howevere, there was a wide swath of even heavier 1-3 inch rainfall amounts that occurred from Choctawhatchee Bay east along the SR 20 corridor to Tallahassee, and up to near Thomasville, Georgia. After this evening, no additional rain is expected through at least Thursday. The next chance of rain will come around Friday and next Saturday, though it should come up well short of amounts needed for flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 64 46 68 / 30 0 0 0 Panama City 53 65 49 68 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 49 64 45 67 / 20 0 0 0 Albany 48 63 43 67 / 20 0 0 0 Valdosta 48 62 43 68 / 60 0 0 0 Cross City 53 66 46 73 / 90 0 0 0 Apalachicola 54 63 52 65 / 60 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ751-752- 770-772. && $$ SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...Haner MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery HYDROLOGY...Haner