Expires:No;;221116
FXUS65 KTWC 252157
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
257 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry weather this afternoon with skies clearing 
from west to east. Dry conditions are expected Friday, then another 
disturbance on Saturday with a few light showers possible. 
Additional precipitation is possible mid to late next week. 
Temperatures remain about 10 degrees above normal through Friday 
with additional cooling to near to slightly above normal levels this 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers have dissipated and skies are clearing out 
rapidly as dry southwest flow aloft moves into the area making for a 
mostly dry and sunny afternoon across southeast Arizona with high 
temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 70s. Residual 
surface moisture has resulted in some puffy Cumulus clouds this 
afternoon, but much drier southwest flow aloft will promote mostly 
clear skies and subsiding air heading into the evening hours. The 
combination of rapidly clearing skies and moist low levels overnight 
may result in patchy fog again this evening, especially across the 
Sulphur Springs Valley. Motorists should prepare for rapid changes 
in visibility, especially along Interstate 10 between Benson and 
Bowie.

Tomorrow, continued dry weather prevails until the evening hours 
when chances (30-50%) for isolated light showers gradually return 
heading into the overnight period and lasting through early Sunday 
morning as a disturbance embedded in southwest flow aloft ahead of a 
longwave trough makes its way across southeast Arizona. Not much in 
the way of precipitation amounts during this timeframe with QPF 
mainly less than 0.05 inches in the valleys and around 0.15 inches 
in the mountains. Otherwise, high temperatures tomorrow will be 
similar to this afternoon topping out in the mid 70s but will drop 
into the mid 60s on Saturday with another few degrees of cooling 
expected for Sunday and early next week. By Monday morning, low 
temperatures in the Sulphur Springs Valley will likely (60-80%) dip 
below freezing and possibly (40-60%) even into hard freeze (less 
than 28 degrees) territory.

The aforementioned trough will push through the Great Basin and 
advance into the central Rockies Sunday as dry conditions return to 
southeast Arizona. There is still indication that residual northern 
stream energy will try to dig on the backside of the positively 
tilted trough and drag across the Desert Southwest which creates 
differences in the ensembles heading into early next week. For now, 
it's still trending dry for us early next week with the potential 
for an upper cutoff low well west of Baja to eventually swing closer 
to us by later Wednesday into Thursday bringing a return to 
precipitation chances. Near normal temperatures are expected for 
early next week but will nudge to above normal levels by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 27/00Z.
SKC-FEW clouds 5-9k ft AGL thru 26/03Z with increasing mid-level 
clouds AOA 8-14 ft AGL expected after 26/18Z through the end of the 
valid period. Patchy FG possible for the KDUG terminal between 
26/12Z and 26/16Z. SFC winds mainly less than 10 kts and variable 
through the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures remain about 10 degrees above normal 
through Friday with cooling to near to slightly above normal levels 
this weekend. A few light showers mainly this morning, then drying 
this afternoon. Dry Friday then a few more showers possible Saturday 
mainly from Tucson eastward. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less 
and terrain driven through the weekend. Min relative humidity values 
at all elevations will be in the 30-45 percent (and higher in the 
mountains) through the weekend. Min relative humidity values lower 
slightly to 25-35 percent early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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