Expires:No;;177066 FXUS64 KTSA 250450 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1050 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1033 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 - Well above average temperatures will persist through Saturday. Daily record highs are expected with all-time December record highs also possible. - Strong cold front arrives Sunday bringing a chance for showers and maybe a few storms as well. Much colder temps, more typical of late December, can be expected to start next week. - Areas of fog possible again in parts of northeast Oklahoma near the Kansas border, and in the Arkansas River Valley tonight and Christmas morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 A quasi-stationary frontal boundary over KS is expected to settle south tonight and be near the OK/KS border by morning. This area will see lighter winds and cooler temps overnight, potentially dropping into the upper 40s again. As a result, much like the previous couple of nights, areas of fog are expected to develop that could be locally dense. Light winds and relatively cooler temps are also forecast in the lower Arkansas Valley and some valleys in southeast OK, though there is some uncertainty there with the degree of low cloud cover. Nevertheless, short-term models show a fog signal there, some of which may be dense by Christmas morning. Lows tonight will be well above normal daytime highs for the season in most areas, though relatively cooler in the above mentioned locations. An anomalously strong ridge aloft for this time of year will prevail on Thursday over the Plains downstream from a deep upper trough near the West Coast, though upper heights will fall a bit as the ridge flattens. The LLTR will slide south over the forecast area, a touch weaker than today. In addition, there will be an increase in mid and high level cloud by afternoon as the ridge flattens and this will likely limit the max warming potential. Nevertheless, the warmest Christmas on record is forecast across the region with temps from the mid 70s to near 80. There is still a chance we touch all-time December highs again, though this chance is low given reasons above. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1138 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Low amplitude ridging will persist over the Plains into Friday. A subtle wave sliding east across the central/northern Plains will force a weak surface boundary down into the region Thursday night into Friday. The previous shift introduced some fog potential across NE OK on the cool side of the boundary and this will be left alone given what has happened recently. Relatively cooler highs are forecast across NE OK Friday afternoon, which may prevent records from being broken here. Record warmth is likely south of the boundary Friday, and across the entire area on Saturday with all- time December records again in play. Some significant weather changes are in store for the latter part of the weekend into the first part of next week. A pair of waves, one in the southern stream off the CA coast, and another in the northern stream coming in from the Pac NW are expected to phase and shift east across the central Plains Sunday. This will send a strong cold front south across the region, ushering in the reality that it is indeed winter. The trends in frontal timing have been slower of late, instead of Saturday night more during the day Sunday now. Given the unusually high dewpoints in place for this time of year and the slower timing of fropa into the day on Sunday, expect increasing chances for showers and some storms (maybe even a low severe threat?) with the front over more of the forecast area than in previous forecasts. There is some uncertainty as to how much post- frontal precip occurs by late Sunday, with some models including the 12Z EC, showing the potential for a light wintry mix at the end of the event. The GFS is drier in the post-frontal region and ensemble cluster data shows meaningful chances for either to occur. Even if it were to occur, no impacts are expected at this time. This front will bring a glancing blow of arctic air into the region, knocking temps down to well below average by Monday. Forecast temps have been trending lower with each forecast with this airmass. A warming trend starts on Tuesday as the upper trough shifts east, the surface ridge slides southeast and lee troughing forms over the High Plains, inducing low level downslope flow. This warming trend will continue into the middle of next week. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) continues to trend down, with the index expected to go negative by the end of the month. This suggests conditions are more favorable for arctic intrusions into the country as we head into the first part of January. The longer range forecasts from the EC and GFS suggest that the bulk of this arctic air will stay over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with more of a warmer downslope flow over the Plains. Lacy && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025 Scattered to broken high clouds continue over the area tonight along with southerly winds around 10 knots, occasionally gusting to 15-20 knots across NW AR sites. Areas of fog will likely develop tonight as well within the Arkansas River Valley, with some development noted around KFSM currently. Other sites could see patchy fog development, with better chances near the OK/KS border, impacting KBVO. MVFR cigs could also spread into NW AR sites later tonight, before lifting and scattering out during the day tomorrow. South to southwesterly winds will pick back up by afternoon with gusts again around 20 knots across all sites. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 59 79 57 73 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 60 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 61 80 61 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 54 77 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 60 76 61 77 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 61 76 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 59 79 61 76 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 61 77 58 73 / 0 0 0 0 F10 60 80 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 60 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...04