FGUS64 KTUA 072225
ESPCO 

        Water Supply Outlook                                              January 7, 2026


	ABRFC uses the 1991-2020 AVERAGE runoff volume as our Normal at each point.

	Snowfall across the Upper Arkansas River Basin has been significanly below normal 
	to start the 2026 Water Year. Snow conditions only deteriorate as you go southward.
	There is barely any snow in the mountains of the Canadian Basin in New Mexico.

	Seasonal runoff (April-September) is forecast to be 69 percent-of-average for the 
	Arkansas River at Salida and 71 percent-of-average below Pueblo Reservoir. Runoff 
	from Grape Creek, the Cucharas River and the Huerfano River is forecast to be 62, 
	53, and 72 percent-of-average, respectively. Chalk Creek is forecast to provide 
	80 percent-of-average runoff.  Runoff from the Purgatoire River is forecast to 
	be 47 percent-of-average. 

	In New Mexico, seasonal runoff (March-June) from Rayado and Ponil Creeks is 
	forecast to be 50 and 53 percent-of-average, respectively. The Vermejo and 
	Cimarron Rivers are forecast to be 47 and 51 percent-of-average, respectively. 

	Water-year-to-date precipitation (October-December) in the mountain headwaters 
	of Colorado is below median, overall. Reports range from 44 percent-of-median at 
	Apishipa to 122 percent-of-median at Medano Pass. Snowpack above Salida, as 
	measured by (NRCS) SNOTEL sites, is below normal at 47 percent-of-median. Snowpack 
	in the Cucharas and Huerfano basins is also below normal at 37 percent-of-median. 
	In the Purgatoire River basin, the snowpack is well below normal at 22 percent-of-
	median.

	New Mexico's water-year-to-date precipitation is well below normal. Reports range 
	from 44 percent-of-median at Tolby to 65 percent-of-median at Shuree. The snowpack 
	in the Canadian Basin sparce, with not every SNOTEL station reporting a snowpack. 
	Reports range from 10 percent-of-median at Palo to 54 percent-of-median at Shuree.
	 

	Reservoir storage in the Arkansas River system is 100 percent-of-median above 
	Pueblo Reservoir and 80 percent-of-median below the reservoir.  The upper reservoirs 
	are at 88 percent of last year's total. The lower reservoirs are at 85 percent of 
	last year's total.

	The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues three-month temperature and precipitation 
	outlooks for the nation. The outlook for January through March calls for increased 
	chances of above normal temperatures in Colorado and New Mexico. The CPC outlook also 
	calls for increased chances for below normal precipitation across New Mexico and 
	southern Colorado and equal chances of above, near, or below normal in the remainder
	of Colorado.


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