FXPQ21 VHHH 071346
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC
00 H 11.5N 122.2E 25 KNOTS.
P24 H DISSIPATED OVER SEA.
PROGNOSTIC REASONING
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE PHILIPPINES TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ACTUAL POSITION WAS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST POSITIONS WERE BASED ON THE
MODEL ENSEMBLE OF ECMWF, EGRR, NCEP, JMA, EC EPS AND AI
DATA DRIVEN MODELS INITIALIZED BY ECMWF. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE PHILIPPINES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PHILIPPINES AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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