FXUS61 KBUF 260714 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 214 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move from the southern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic through tonight, bringing a variety of winter weather and travel impacts to the region. A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is expected across Western New York, with the greatest amounts of ice accumulation across the western Southern Tier. Mainly snow is expected east of the Genesee Valley with moderate accumulations likely. Dry weather will return Saturday through Sunday morning before more active weather returns late Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A potent compact low will move east/southeast from the southern Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic through tonight bringing a round of mixed precipitation. Light snow may develop as early as late morning across western New York and the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes. The main event will develop during the early to mid afternoon, with a precipitation shield rapidly expanding and intensifying across Western and Central New York. The mid level shortwave and surface low are relatively weak, but the system will be moving through a tight thermal gradient, supporting a northwest to southeast band of strong low/mid level frontogenesis north of the low track. Upper level divergence within a coupled jet structure will further support a band of deep layer ascent northeast of the surface low track. The overall synoptic and thermodynamic setup appears favorable to support some embedded mesoscale banding structures as well. The heaviest precipitation and greatest impacts to travel will be from mid afternoon through mid evening. Precipitation type continues to be a challenge and quite uncertain with this event. A band of snow positioned to the north of the low where low/mid level frontogenesis is maximized will produce a moderate to locally heavy snowfall from around the western Finger Lakes eastward. Warning criteria snow will be possible under this band, but this band will be quite narrow and forecasting where this will set up is very difficult to forecast. To the west and south of the snow band, the precipitation type will mostly freezing rain and sleet, but snow is also possible. The area from the Niagara Frontier into Livingston County is where uncertainty is greatest in terms of precipitation type. For snow accumulations, expect 4-8" from the Rochester area eastward to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes, with 2-5" for Jefferson and Lewis counties (greatest in the southern portion of those counties). Less snow expected for the western Southern Tier with much more freezing rain and sleet expected. From the Niagara Frontier to Livingston County, snow amounts are highly uncertain given precipitation type uncertainties. Current thinking is 1-3" with sleet holding down snow amounts. If precipitation stays mainly snow, accumulations could be quite a bit higher. For ice accumulations, expect 0.10" to 0.25" across the western Southern Tier, but portions of Chautauqua County may reach the 0.25" to 0.50" range if freezing rain is predominant. There is a potential Chautauqua County may exceed 0.50" and reach Ice Storm Warning criteria, but confidence in that is low. The snow and mixed precipitation will quickly taper off from west to east tonight, with most of the precipitation done by late evening across Western New York, and before daybreak Saturday east of Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Seasonably cold but quiet weather expected through Saturday night as high pressure ridging crests over and east of the region. Lows will likely dip well into the single digits east of Lake Ontario with a colder airmass over the region and clearing skies early in the night. Active weather makes a return later Sunday as a phasing jet pattern carves out a sharpening longwave trough over the Plains. This will cause a deepening sfc low to track northeast across the Great Lakes region through Sunday night, with deep isentropic lift across the forecast area. For most areas this system will bring plain rain, though with a couple of potential exceptions. The first will be at precip onset across WNY Sunday afternoon as there remains a marginal overrunning setup with cold low-level SE flow in place. The NBM suggests freezing rain is the dominant ptype at first, though model soundings indicate a very dry warm layer aloft with mid/upper level saturation above it. This could lead to dynamic cooling of the column which may promote more of brief rain/snow or wintry mix setup before warming changes everything over to rain. Have left the NBM's FZRA where it looks most probable around the Southern Tier, while depreciating it further north. Precip will likely not reach the North Country until Sunday evening, though this is where the near-sfc freezing layer will likely be more stubborn as colder air drains down the St. Lawrence Valley. While not an ideal setup, freezing rain chances are much higher and persist for longer compared to WNY with ice accumulation possible across the Tug/Western Dacks and north of Watertown. Confidence is lower further south with the same aforementioned concerns with dynamic cooling. All locations should also change over to plain rain later Sunday night into early Monday morning. Regardless of ptype, this system will draw an impressive plume of Gulf-based moisture northward with modeled PWATs >1", which would be near the daily max for 12/28. There remains a fair bit of spread in ensemble QPF amounts, though conservative estimates of 0.5" to 1.0" across WNY combined with snowmelt may result in rises to action stage on several Buffalo area creeks. The latest NAEFS/GEFS even advertise about a 10% chance of minor flood stage across many of these waterways. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecast remains on track for a prolonged period of active weather next week. This comes as a deep closed low over the central Great Lakes Monday morning moves east to northern New England through Tuesday, which will be quickly followed by a shortwave clipper and then another 500mb closed low dropping across Ontario Province later in the week. The initial system's passage will drive a strong arctic cold front through the forecast area Monday, causing 850mb temps to drop from near +9C to the negative teens in just 12-24 hours. A ~45-55kt LLJ within this deep CAA regime will cause winds to sharply ramp up as early as Monday morning, with sfc gusts likely exceeding 40mph downwind of the lakes at times into Monday night. Once the dry slot moves through by Monday evening, oscillating bands of lake effect snow will also develop off both lakes. Long range ensembles continue to suggest an initial WSW steering flow which quickly becomes northwesterly Monday night through Tuesday, though confidence in flow direction is sharply reduced thereafter. Winds will subside as the NW shift occurs, though remain blustery through at least Tuesday as a 40-50kt LLJ remains overhead. Reinforcing synoptic moisture on the backside of the first closed low looks to be plentiful, with the following systems bringing additional forcing/moisture to support lake effect snow all the way through New Year's Day, and periodic snows outside the main lake effect areas. This may result in significant accumulations east and/or southeast of the lakes. Significant blowing and drifting snow is also likely in the main lake effect areas, especially early on in the event when winds are strongest. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry weather and mainly VFR CIGS are through this morning. The one exception will be across the Finger Lakes region and lower Genesee Valley where a period of localized lake induced MVFR CIGS will be possible under a northeast flow through about 12z. Low pressure will cross the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley through tonight, bringing a wintry mix of precipitation. Some light snow may develop as early as mid to late morning across western New York and the Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes. The main event will develop during the early to mid afternoon Friday, with a precipitation shield rapidly expanding and intensifying across Western and Central NY. Expect snow to be the dominant precipitation type from KROC-KPEO eastward, with freezing rain and sleet dominant across the western Southern Tier near KJHW. Between these two areas, precipitation type is highly uncertain from the Niagara Frontier (KBUF-KIAG) to near KDSV. The most likely scenario is for snow and sleet to dominate, with the sleet holding down snow accumulations but bringing its own impacts to aviation operations. There is some potential for a little freezing rain in this area as well, but most forecast soundings suggest sleet will be the main non-snow precipitation type. The area that will see the best chance for impactful FZRA will be across the western Southern Tier (including KJHW), where significant icing is possible. Expect widespread MVFR CIGS and IFR VSBY Friday afternoon and evening. There may be some heavier banding of snow from near KROC and the Finger Lakes to Central NY, where VSBY may drop to near approach minimums at times. Outlook... Saturday...Areas of MVFR CIGS in low stratus early, improving to VFR. Sunday...VFR in the morning, deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain developing from southwest to northeast. Freezing rain possible across the North Country. Monday...MVFR/IFR. Rain changing to snow early from west to east. Localized heavier lake effect snow developing east of the lakes late. Tuesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered snow showers. Localized heavier lake effect snow and IFR possible east/southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. && .MARINE... Moderate northeast winds early this morning before turning easterly and increasing on Lake Ontario through this evening as low pressure moves across the upper Ohio Valley and tightens the pressure gradient. Winds and waves will start to diminish by Saturday morning. A strong cold front will cross the lower great Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Westerly gales are likely with possible storm force gusts Monday into Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ003>006-014. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Saturday for NYZ007-008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042>044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/TMA NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/JM/TMA SHORT TERM...PP LONG TERM...PP AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM/TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA