FXUS61 KCLE 031758
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1258 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. A 
weak low will glide east across the Great Lakes tonight before high 
pressure builds east on Sunday. A notable warming trend and multiple 
rain chances expected next week starting Monday and continuing 
through the end of the week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Most of the area will remain dry as high pressure persists across 
the Ohio Valley. Simultaneously, a weak area of low pressure will 
glide east across the eastern Great Lakes this evening. This weak 
low will bring scattered snow showers to the northern portion of the 
forecast area with accumulating snowfall confined to the Snowbelt. 
Snowfall amounts across the Snowbelt should remain between 1 to 3 
inches. Locally higher amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be 
possible across the higher terrain of inland Erie County PA. 
Moisture at 850-700mb will quickly dry out Sunday morning as 
high pressure builds east which should allow any remaining lake
effect snow to diminish through the day on Sunday. 

Lows are expected to fall into the teens tonight. Highs on 
Sunday will warm into the upper 20s with lows Sunday night in 
the teens to lower 20s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts to the east on Monday as a shortwave aloft 
pushes east across Lower Michigan into western New York. Given the 
track of the shortwave, most of the precipitation should remain to 
the north of the forecast area on Monday but can't rule out some 
scattered snow showers clipping the lakeshore. By Tuesday low 
pressure over the Upper Midwest will lift a warm front northeast 
across the eastern Great Lakes. Expect for scattered rain
showers to push into the forecast area under moist isentropic 
ascent associated with the warm front. 

Trending warmer in the short term with highs in the low to mid 30s 
on Monday rising into the lower 40s by Tuesday. Overnight lows 
in the mid to upper 20s Monday night warm to the mid 30s by 
Tuesday night. 

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Remaining warm with multiple chances for rain showers through the 
long term. Aforementioned low will exit the region Wednesday night 
with another area of low pressure expected to lift out of the 
Central Plains and move into the Ohio Valley region Thursday night 
into Friday. Will need to monitor how much rainfall the area 
receives as precipitation and a melting snowpack may lead to rises 
on area rivers and localized flooding towards the end of the
week. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with deterioration to 
widespread MVFR ceilings likely late tonight into Sunday with an
approaching weak clipper. Generally light snow will accompany 
the clipper system with VFR vsbys favored outside of ERI where 
IFR vsbys are most likely tonight into early Sunday morning. 
Guidance has been trending lower with ceilings areawide for 
Sunday morning and will continue to monitor trends to see if IFR
conditions may need to be introduced in future updates. 

Winds are generally light and favoring a west to northwest
direction this afternoon, around 5 knots. Winds will remain
light and favor a westerly direction through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible across the northern half of the area
on Monday in low ceilings and/or snow. Non-VFR may persist
areawide in low ceilings Monday night into Tuesday. Non-VFR 
possible in rain late Tuesday into Wednesday, then again on 
Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
The remaining Small Craft Advisories will expire at 09Z/4 AM and 
headlines are not anticipated for the next several days. Winds will 
be out of the west/northwest at around 8 to 14 knots through most of 
Sunday with winds becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday. Warm 
air advection will result in southwest winds between 6 and 12 knots 
Monday evening through the middle of the week. Small Craft 
Advisories may be needed Friday into the weekend as south/southwest 
flow deepens.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...15