FXUS61 KPBZ 071926 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 226 PM EST Wed Jan 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The main change in the ensembles heading into the periods where the forecast challenge is mainly over the Friday through Saturday period. Over the last few runs of the NBM has shown an increase in unstable conditions on Friday. This correlates with the other change in the trends as high temperatures have increased in some cases as much as 5 degrees through Friday and Saturday. As well, the winds have increased a bit as well and with the amount of cloud cover over the next few days leading into the weekend, the amount of advection to register the highs the NBM shows, the winds certainly make this possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers arrive on Friday with a potential for thunderstorms, some could be strong. - Winds increase for the lowlands and the ridges on Sunday with Wind Advisory potential in E. Tucker County. - Snow showers return for Sunday and Monday with some minor accumulation possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers arrive on Friday with a potential for thunderstorms, some could be strong. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday will feature an exiting trough and an end to the lingering precip across the area. However, the cloud cover will remain, although with some breakup on Thu but increasing in coverage again on Friday. The trough will shift into the central Plains by Friday with an extended cold front south. The increased advection will cause temperatures to soar into the low 60s on Friday with a potential of thunderstorms at least into Friday night and a potential of some on Saturday. At this time, the ensembles are giving a low probability of thunder with less than 10% on Friday and around 15% on Saturday. There are plenty of uncertainties on Friday and Saturday but the wind potential and the uncertainty will make this period one to watch for. KEY MESSAGE 2...Winds increase for the lowlands and the ridges on Sunday with Wind Advisory potential in E. Tucker County. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The main concern for the Saturday night and into Sunday period will be the potential for higher wind gusts. As mentioned in the changes above, their is a strong uptick in gusty wind potential as the ensembles have been trending faster with time. As the main jet arrives on Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, the probability of exceeding 45 mph in Eastern Tucker county is over 90%, with a modest 55% on the PA/WV ridges. Thus, have mentioned this in the HWO given the moderate to strong confidence. The lowlands during the day on Sunday indicate a low confidence of even reaching Advisory criteria, even with the 75th percentile, which is not out of the range of possibility, only a few locations just barely scrape the 46 mph mark. Thankfully, there'splenty of time to analyze before committing to a headline potential. KEY MESSAGE 3...Snow showers return for Sunday with some minor accumulation possible. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... By the period on Sunday, after the passage of the cold front, cold air advection will begin in earnest with the change over to snow showers by 12Z Sunday and continuing through Monday at 12Z. While there is low confidence of accumulation amounts, the NBM is showing around a 30% probability of exceeding an inch and the ridges to the south have about a 15% to 20% prob. There is some statistics of the NBM showing roughly 0.10 across the area and with a higher ratio due to the cold, there could be a potential for the north or the ridges to reach advisory criteria. As well, there is some surface instability of 15 to 40 J/Kg during the day on Sunday. This means there could be a snow squall potential to be concerned about. Stay tuned as the weekend arrives as it seems plenty of potential for hazardous weather is present. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - MVFR to LIFR restrictions into tomorrow - Rain/snow mix near FKL/DUJ - Fog potential early Thursday ------------------------------------------------------------ MGW is the only port that has mid to high MVFR CIGs while the remainder of ports are observing low MVFR CIGs aside from BVI, FKL and DUJ (IFR/LIFR). HREF IFR probabilities are 60% or higher north of Pittsburgh and along the ridges through early tomorrow morning. Some visibility reductions may return in drizzle and mist, but these should largely avoid IFR levels. A lingering shallow subsidence inversion will keep the ceiling restrictions in the forecast for most of the TAF period, with west wind. Some erosion from the south is late tonight/early tomorrow morning as low-level warm advection commences, arriving first at ZZV and MGW. Depending on this clearing, fog development may be possible after midnight as the surface remains saturated from the recent rain and melting snow. Outlook... There is a chance for low-level wind shear to develop Thursday night into Friday. This is expected to persist until midday and weakens through early Friday evening. A large-scale disturbance will likely impact terminals with low cigs/vis Friday into Saturday along with elevated rain chances. Snow chances return Sunday in the wake of a passing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Shallenberger AVIATION...CL/Lupo