FXUS62 KMLB 061109 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 609 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 230 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 - A Dense Fog ADVISORY is in effect until 9 am this morning. Fog will remain a concern during the early mornings through midweek. Expect sudden visibility reductions for commuters. - Above-normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with highs reaching the lower 80s over the interior. A few daily record highs may be threatened on Friday and Saturday. - A cold front is still forecast to arrive sometime on Sunday, with cooler weather returning next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 230 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 Observations and cameras indicate that areas of dense fog (1/4 mile visibility) have once again developed this morning, necessitating a Dense Fog Advisory. It will remain in effect until 9 am. The fog is expected to expand in area through sunrise. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Deep-layer high pressure has assumed control of the weather across Florida this morning. Aloft, a mid-level ridge is centered over the Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula. To its north, quick zonal flow persists across the continental U.S. This de-amplified pattern will be responsible for a classic January thaw east of the Rocky Mountains for much of the work week. Mid-level heights should continue to slowly build over Florida this week. Through Saturday, 05/12Z ensemble cluster analysis reveals excellent agreement in the local pattern. By that time, the mid-level ridge should be squarely over Florida, with H5 heights above the 95th percentile for early January (approaching 590 dam). A broad swath of positive temperature anomalies will extend from Florida north to Hudson Bay through around Saturday. Beneath the subsidence, a surface high pressure axis should remain anchored very close to Central or South Florida. The pattern remains progressive, however. Over the next 72 hours, a 170 KT jet streak over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to dive into the Western U.S. and phase with subtropical energy ejecting from Southern California. This gathers a large trough over the Intermountain West that is projected to move toward the Eastern U.S. by the weekend. This feature will be responsible for Florida's next cold front. Guidance continues to struggle resolving the amplitude, timing, and tilt of the trough; around half of the grand ensemble leave appreciable energy behind across the Four Corners and Permian Basin. This would slow the front slightly, and upon looking at some early-arriving 06/00Z AI guidance, the trend seems to be in that direction. Ensemble means show about an 18-hour range in frontal timing, centered from late Saturday night through Sunday. Accordingly, statistical guidance continues to show considerable temperature spreads and low confidence from Sunday into Monday. However, there remains strong agreement that the setup is unfavorable for deep moisture advection and ascent. While a broad longwave trough is expected over the Eastern U.S. early next week, subtle (but important) disagreements continue to pile up. Negative temperature anomalies are likely, but members remain split on the depth of the trough and resultant cold advection intensity over Florida. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today... The ingredients remain in place for fog development over the peninsula this morning. Already, we have seen visibilities drop below a half mile in some locations. With a very light land breeze and high RH values near the surface, radiational fog should continue to form through early this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be required if widespread low visibilities are realized. The rest of our Tuesday should feature mainly sunny skies and pleasant, but slightly above-normal, high temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Light breezes persist, with a weak sea breeze forming at the coast by afternoon. Wednesday - Saturday... The potential for locally dense fog sticks around each night and early morning through at least midweek. On Thursday morning, some guidance is especially bullish on fog development. We will continue to monitor these trends closely. The near-surface high pressure axis should move northward through this timeframe, with winds turning southeasterly late in the work week. This will continue an unusually warm forecast for the time of year. Quiet conditions prevail as well, as any fronts remain well to our northwest during this timeframe. Highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s will persist. Record temperatures on Friday and Saturday are generally in the low/mid 80s as well. Leesburg still has the highest chance to at least tie their record on Friday (82 deg F, a 60% chance). At Orlando, there is a 10-20% chance of reaching the records on Friday and Saturday. A small but persistent long-period swell continues at our beaches, leading to at least a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents. Sunday - Early Next Week... While confidence is high that a front will slide into the area sometime around Sunday, the details remain murky. In particular, how quickly and how much we cool off as the front moves through the area remain of very low confidence, with statistical guidance still showing large temperature IQRs (interquartile ranges) of 10 to 12 deg F on Sunday. For now, we will stick with the bias-corrected guidance, which calls for highs to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s beginning Sunday. Lows at night trend chillier, too, but how much is in question. There is a 30-40% chance to reach the upper 30s north of Greater Orlando beginning Monday morning. The one consistent theme with this front is that significant, wetting rain is still unlikely. In fact, the odds of picking up even a tenth of an inch have fallen to around 10% or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 An axis of high pressure moves little through the middle of the week, holding over South Florida. As it moves northward over Central Florida late this week, favorable boating conditions should persist. Aside from a low chance for showers over the waters today, quiet conditions continue through at least Saturday. Some patchy morning fog is possible, particularly over the Intracoastal Waterway and nearby backwater estuaries. The next cold front approaches the local Atlantic on Sunday. Prevailing winds are generally west to southwest from 7-13 KT, becoming variable to light onshore with the afternoon sea breeze through Wednesday. Winds then turn out of the southeast beginning Thursday and Friday, 7-12 KT. Seas 2-4 FT today, subsiding to 1-3 FT through Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 610 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026 Bouncy sub-VFR conds early this morning, ocnly all the way down to VLIFR, are affecting the terminals. Expect VFR conds to return by 14Z-15Z with light W-SW wind flow less than 10 knots turning onshore along the coast this afternoon behind a sea breeze. Another round of fog/stratus should move in from the Gulf and reach interior terminals (LEE/SFB/MCO) toward sunrise Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 57 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 80 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 78 56 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 79 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 79 57 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 79 57 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 79 58 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 79 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447- 547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ UPDATE...Heil AVIATION...Kelly