FXUS62 KRAH 090036 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 735 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will push offshore through tonight, allowing a warm front to move northward through the area on Friday. A strong cold front will sweep through the region Saturday night into early Sunday, ushering in more seasonable temperatures for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 135 PM Thursday... * Dry through tonight, but with increasing low clouds, and patchy drizzle possible in the Triad late. Surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic coast will move E and offshore through tonight, supported by amplifying mid level ridging along the E Coast, allowing surface warm frontal passage from the S and SE into NC. Skies will stay fair through the rest of the daylight hours with high clouds spreading in, but later tonight, advection of greater low level moisture and higher dewpoints from the S (noted well on this morning's soundings at FFC/CHS/JAX) will result in development of low clouds spreading in first over the S and W from late evening through the overnight hours. SE and far S areas, where surface dewpoints will be highest, may also see areas of fog late tonight. This low level moisture and saturated upglide at 290K-300K looks likely to be sufficiently deep/strong in the NW Piedmont late tonight for patchy drizzle as well, but any precip here should be very light and not spread E overnight, given the lingering dry air just aloft over E NC associated with the mid level ridge. Expect temps tonight to be coolest in the NE where radiational cooling will be facilitated by thinner high clouds and later stratus arrival overnight. Expect lows from the upper 30s/near 40 NE to upper 40s SW. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 203 PM Thursday... A strong upper trough will strengthen and lift across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. At the sfc, a weak high initially off the New England coast will shift further offshore through the day. Initially enely sfc flow will consequently turn sswly Friday morning/afternoon. Isentropic lift associated with weak WAA may trigger light rain/drizzle in our far western areas Friday morning into the afternoon (although best chances for rain this early would be more-so over the mountains/foothills). Any QPE early would likely amount to just a few hundreds of an inch at most through the morning/afternoon hours in this vicinity. As we turn into the evening and overnight period, increasing WAA and isentropic lift along the 300 K theta sfc will promote better rain chances across the western Piedmont early before shifting east over the northern Piedmont/Coastal Plain through early Saturday morning. Sites further south and southeast should see lower QPE through this period. Overall QPF for northern areas could range from a few hundreds to a few tenths across the NC/VA border. High temperatures on Friday will range from lower 60s in the Triad to lower to mid 70s across the southern Coastal Plain. Forecast soundings indicate most locations should eventually mix with possible sly gusts of up to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Warm overnight lows in the mid 50s are likely with patchy fog possible especially across southern areas. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Thursday... -Record warmth Saturday, then freezing Sunday night. -Showers Saturday into early Sunday (isolated storms in NW) -Gusty winds Saturday/Sunday afternoon, up to 30mph. -Dry Monday–Tuesday; low-confidence rain midweek. A surface low centered over Tennessee Saturday morning will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east across the Mid-Atlantic along with a cold front trailing south toward the Gulf Coast. As the surface low shifts northeastward, expect increasing PoPs across the CWA early Saturday morning mainly across the Triangle and areas to the north and west. As the front approaches the region and intersects with the warm sector, areas along the merge may see a few isolated strong storms Saturday morning ahead of a cold front. Locally damaging winds are possible where storms persist. The threat should diminish as the front moves east. Shower and storm coverage across the southeast CWA should remain isolated through the daytime hours Saturday. As the main cold front crosses the region Saturday night, shower coverage will then increase and become more widespread across the entire forecast area overnight. By Sunday morning, the front should be exiting the Mid- Atlantic coast, allowing the bulk of the rainfall to end for much of the area. As the front stalls just off the coast, there remains a low chance for isolated showers through much of Sunday, mainly along and east of US-1 corridor. By Sunday afternoon/early evening a secondary reinforcing front will move across the region clearing the region of all precipitation. Ahead of the initial front on Saturday, gusty south to southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph are possible. A secondary front will then bring another period of gusty northwesterly winds Sunday afternoon, with gusts again reaching around 30 mph. By Monday, high pressure will build eastward across the southern US , bringing dry conditions for Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, model guidance diverges a bit with the development and evolution of a potential coastal low on Wednesday, resulting in lower forecast confidence by the end of the forecast period. For now, have a slight chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday but will be dependent on how deep the northern trough digs south and how organized the coastal low becomes mid-week. Temperatures will be well above normal on Saturday, with climate locations (GSO/RDU/FAY) having the potential to challenge record highs (and Record High Min). Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s near 70 in the north to upper 70s align the south. Temperatures will begin to transition Sunday night with lows in the NW in the mid 40s and mid 50s across the SE. With the secondary cold front moving through the region Sunday afternoon, highs will vary depending on the timing but generally expect low 50s NW to low 60s SE. Much cooler air arrives Sunday night, with lows in the mid to upper 20s everywhere. Monday highs will be the coolest of the forecast period with highs in the mid/upper 40s then another night of lows in the mid/upper 20s. Temperatures begin to moderate back into the 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the mid/upper 30s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 730 PM Thursday... High confidence in VFR conditions remains through this evening, with a deck of increasingly dense high clouds moving overhead. After 06z tonight as surface high pressure over New England moves offshore and the low-level flow across our area turns more ESE, increasing low- level moisture will spread in from the south and west. This will result in IFR/LIFR ceilings beginning at INT/GSO/FAY around 08z-10z, followed by RDU/RWI around 10z-12z. Some MVFR/IFR visibilities from mist/fog will also be possible at all TAF sites, with the best chance at RDU/FAY/RWI, where some LIFR fog can't be ruled out from early to mid morning. A warm front will move through from south to north on Friday morning, with winds veering to a S/SW direction and increasing to 7-10 kts gusting up to 15 kts in the afternoon (diminishing after sunset). This will help mix out at least some of the low-level moisture, with ceilings eventually lifting to VFR in the afternoon at FAY and RWI, potentially even at RDU as well. Farther NW at INT and GSO, more low-level moisture will remain, but ceilings may lift to MVFR by late afternoon. Patchy light rain and drizzle will also be possible at times at INT/GSO in the morning and afternoon. Looking beyond 00z Sat: Sub-VFR conditions are likely to dominate at INT/GSO well into Sat, ahead of an incoming cold front, with periods of showers. RDU/RWI/FAY will also see a good chance for sub-VFR cigs early Sat morning 07z-13z. The risk for showers and sub-VFR vsbys will remain mostly over the W Piedmont into Sat morning before shifting E over the remaining terminals Sat afternoon into Sat night. We'll also see gusty S/SW winds Sat through Sat night, with periods of mechanical turbulence possible. Behind the cold frontal passage late Sat night into Sun morning, VFR conditions should return Sun, but NW winds will remain quite brisk and gusty Sun. VFR conditions should hold Sun aftn through Tue. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: January 9: KRDU: 73/2008 KFAY: 77/1930 January 10: KGSO: 73/1949 KRDU: 75/1930 KFAY: 79/1930 Record High Minimum Temperatures: January 10: KGSO: 58/1937 KRDU: 63/1937 KFAY: 59/1937 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Luchetti LONG TERM...CA AVIATION...Danco/Hartfield CLIMATE...RAH