FXUS62 KTAE 110712 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 212 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 - Much cooler weather will return starting tonight following a cold frontal passage with a light freeze expected for portions of the area for Monday morning and Tuesday morning. - Hazardous marine conditions are expected behind a cold front with small craft advisories through Monday morning as well as a high risk for rip currents. - The next system for the middle of the week is expected to bring a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers along with another reinforcing shot of cold air behind it to close out the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Lingering showers ahead of a cold front will quickly exit early this morning as the front moves through the area. Behind the front, cold air advection will likely keep highs in the upper 50s across the northern and western portions of the area with low to mid 60s across the southeast half of the area. Breezy conditions are also expected this afternoon with northerly winds gusting in the 20-30 mph range. For tonight, continued cold air advection is expected to result in a light freeze for most of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia with pockets of freezing temperatures into northwest Florida. With a light breeze still blowing, wind chills are expected to range from the low to mid 20s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia to the mid to upper 20s across northwest Florida. Values are within a couple of degrees of needing a cold weather advisory, but confidence is not high enough to pull the trigger on that at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Monday will be a cool day with highs remaining in the 50s for most areas except for the far southeast big bend as high pressure builds in the wake of the cold front. The center of the cold high pressure will move close to the area for Monday night, and another light freeze is expected for Tuesday morning for a large portion of the area with radiational cooling conditions. The airmass will briefly modify by the middle of next week ahead of our next system. This next system looks like it will be moisture starved with only a low to medium chance of showers (20-40%). However, the cold front looks fairly strong with breezy conditions in its wake for Thursday and another reinforcing blast of cold air. Another light freeze is expected for a large portion of the area for Friday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 As of 05Z, cold frontal passage has occurred at ABY and DHN w/ winds veering around to the NW. Meanwhile ahead of the front, fog was developing at TLH and VLD; expect LIFR at both sites until the frontal passage overnight. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will improve to VFR from west to east 10-15Z. Behind the front, NW winds will gust around 20-25 kts until ~00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Advisory level northerly winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected today following a cold frontal passage. Rough conditions will persist through Monday morning. Afterwards, high pressure will build into the southeast states for later Monday and Tuesday with winds and seas relaxing. The next frontal system is expected to bring an increase in winds and seas again by late Wednesday into Thursday. In fact, there is a medium chance (30-50 percent) of gale force gusts behind this system on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Breezy northerly winds behind a cold front will result in high dispersions across most of the area this afternoon. A much drier airmass will result in minimum relative humidity values ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s on Monday afternoon. However, winds will be much lighter on Monday, and pockets of low dispersions are expected as a result for Monday afternoon, mainly across southwest Georgia. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 208 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026 Drought conditions will continue for the next several days with only light rainfall amounts with the cold front this morning. Another low to medium chance of rain is expected by the middle of the week. However, amounts with this next system also appear to be quite light. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 62 35 55 31 / 20 0 0 0 Panama City 62 36 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 57 30 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 58 30 53 29 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 32 54 30 / 20 0 0 0 Cross City 68 35 60 37 / 40 0 0 0 Apalachicola 62 38 55 38 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ735. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ751-752-770- 772. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...LF MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD