FXUS63 KDDC 071012 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 412 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances (60-80%) return mainly to south central Kansas early Thursday. - Unseasonably warm temperatures today. - Snow chances (50-70%) Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 WV imagery indicates a relatively zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Dry conditions will persist through this evening as the SREF continues to show a weakening westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains early in the period, not to mention an extremely dry air mass dominating the lower/mid levels across the high plains of western Kansas. Rain chances (60-80%) pick up early Thursday, mainly for south central Kansas, as a fairly progressive upper level trough of low pressure lifts swiftly northeast across the Desert Southwest tonight, and farther up through west Texas and western Oklahoma into eastern Kansas early Thursday. Ahead of the approaching system, prevailing southerlies will draw modest moisture into south central Kansas with surface dewpoints climbing well up into the 40s(F), though doing little to increase any instability. Still, sufficient lift associated with a frontal boundary attendant to an advancing surface low is likely to set the stage for light/moderate rain development by early to mid-morning Thursday. The best chance for rain remains to be across south central Kansas where the HREF indicates a 70-90% probability for minimal potential rain amounts with 6-hr QPF exceeding only 0.1 of an inch generally southeast of a Liberal to Larned line by early afternoon. Medium range ensembles remain on target pointing to snow chances (50-70%) arriving Friday as a secondary upper level trough digs southeast through the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest late Thursday, then turning eastward through the Southern High Plains Friday. However, details remain uncertain in regard to the track of the system and potential snow amounts. Despite increasing cloud cover, temperatures will remain well above normal today as prevailing southerlies reinforce a milder air mass across the high plains of western Kansas, supporting H85 temperatures up around 10C in central Kansas to near 12C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF indicating better than a 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 55F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 60F near and along the Oklahoma line, expect afternoon highs generally in the lower/mid 60s(F). Thursday's high temperatures look to be a challenge due to a low moving cold front projected to push through at least west central Kansas and possibly a portion of southwest Kansas by late afternoon. This will likely lead to a wide range of highs as cooler air filters in behind the boundary, lowering H85 temperatures well down into the single digits(C) while H85 temperatures hold up near 10C in south central Kansas. Look for highs only up into the 40s(F) in west central Kansas where the HREF points to only a 10-20% probability of temperatures topping 45F to better than a 90% probability of temperatures reaching above 60F in south central Kansas near the Oklahoma line. Much colder air arrives Saturday as the 0C isotherm pushes well south into the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma. With increased cloud cover and likely precip about, temperatures are not expected to climb above the 30s(F) across much of the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 410 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026 VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light west-southwest winds are expected to persist through much of the period with a weak lee side trough of low pressure remaining anchored in eastern Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJohnson AVIATION...JJohnson