FXUS63 KDTX 030832 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 332 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold weather will persist through the weekend. Wind chills are forecast to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above zero. - The next chance of light snow will come this afternoon into the evening. Highest chances of minor snowfall accumulations will be across the Saginaw Valley and northern Thumb with up to an inch possible. - The potential exists for accumulating snowfall over 1 inch Sunday night into Monday morning. The highest likelihood for impacts to the Monday morning commute is currently located north of M-59. - A switch to warmer weather comes this week with temperatures near or above 40 through much of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Broad area of surface high pressure stretching from western Canada, through the northern Plains and into the Ohio Valley provided us with some clearing skies Friday as subsidence and dry air in the low levels brought us a break in the persistent daily snow showers we had through the week. The high will hold over the region today but the active mid upper levels will send the next system through the northern Great Lakes bringing a chance of snow to the state. Models have been fairly consistent with this system the last couple days adding confidence to the forecast. A 110 knot upper jet rounding the top of the longwave ridge positioned over the Plains along with one or more PV maxes racing through the flow, will help develop a weak mid level low that will track across the U.P. and northern MI this afternoon and evening. We will reside on the southern periphery of the system offering a chance of light snow. Overall forcing is weak over SE MI. There is some mid level support within the weak height falls and left exit region of the jet passing over, but the unfavorable low levels will make it difficult to produce much snow. The air will be very dry with not alot of system moisture to help saturate it and still produce snow. Still, the column will be cold with the moisture up through the DGZ so flakes will be produced. Still looking for a half inch to an inch north of M46 tapering off quickly to a dusting from M59 southward. The one newer feature of not is a second weak PV filament south of the main feature earlier in the day which would dive across southern lower MI. Might be enough to result in a few hours more of flurries this afternoon but does not look result in accumulations. Next system isn't far behind, and will again pass through northern Lower MI Sunday night into Monday morning. Little different setup as the longwave ridge flattens and breaks down into a mess of weaker waves passing through the progressive flow but a leading wave on the nose of the next jet max will push the elevated portion of a warm front up through the region overnight. Decent forcing with this front as a 40 knot low level jet provides a band of stronger fgen and better moisture to work with. QPF of 0.1 to 0.2 inches along with the brief but stronger fgen should result in a 6 hour window for snow production. Forcing is best north of M59 with more of a glancing blow across the southern CWA, so 1 to 3 inches looks feasible across the north. Warm advection will cause snow to liquid ratios to decrease through the event but the forcing can make up for that. Location from M59 southward again look to dodge most of the snow with less than an inch expected. Start time should be around 06Z, ending between 12-15Z. Moisture gets stripped out fairly quickly behind the front so not expecting it to drag on much into the afternoon. The ridge building into the region will force the baroclinic zone to the north of the region for the week allowing for a warm up with temperatures above freezing on Monday and near or above 40 much of the rest of the week. Recent guidance even has 50s on Friday through most of the area. The active pattern does continue though with chances of rain on Tuesday and again Friday through part of the weekend. && .MARINE... A weak clipper system slides across the central Great Lakes over the course of the day supporting light snow showers for most waters. The local pressure gradient however remains fairly diffuse keeping trailing NW winds aob 25kts this evening-tonight. Midwestern high pressure then drifts east over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sunday supporting light (<15kt) winds and dry weather to close out the weekend. Another weak low coming out of the central Plains quickly follows for Monday. Similar today, it brings wider spread light snow but doesn't significantly tighten the local gradient only supporting 25kt or less (SSW) winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1147 PM EST Fri Jan 2 2026 AVIATION... Stretch of dry low level conditions entrenched overnight and Saturday morning, as weak surface ridging maintains control. This ensures VFR conditions as high cloud gradually thickens and lowers with time. Winds remain modest from a west-northwest direction during this time. Weak clipper system lifting across the northern great lakes will bring a chance of light snow Saturday afternoon and evening. This will lead to a period of lower VFR to MVFR ceiling height, while offering a window for possible MVFR/brief IFR visibility in falling snow. For DTW...Brief window for possible light snow shower development Saturday afternoon and evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Medium for ceiling aob 5000 feet Saturday afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KDK AVIATION.....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.