FXUS63 KFGF 090402 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1002 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy dense fog may develop tonight into Friday morning. - Light snow and patchy drifting snow is possible Friday night into Saturday morning. There remains about a 10 percent chance for advisory impacts. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1002 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Lighter fog is beginning to form east of the RRV at Fosston matching with the timing/location of where CAMs have been showing development after 9PM through midnight. This also aligns with where BL moisture on RAP/HRRR soundings remain a little deeper and there may be a better chance for eventual dense fog development early Friday morning before sunrise. Farther west (RRV and eastern ND) the dry BL flow will tend to result in a much shallower saturated layer with shallow radiational ground fog more likely. Forecast is generally on track, with the main change to broaden mention of patchy fog. UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 Surface ridge axis is moving into northeast ND and eventually progresses over northwest MN later this evening/overnight. Along/east of this axis guidance is showing a consistent signal for radiational fog/stratus formation, with some guidance supporting the potential for dense fog. Coverage/predictability of dense fog impacts would be lower and potentially much more localized in this type of pattern especially with drier BL flow arriving from the northwest. I added fog mention to areas with best signal tonight (currently outside of the immediate RRV), and will monitor trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 ...Synopsis... Colder air continues to move into the area this afternoon and evening, with northwest winds becoming a bit stronger as the afternoon progresses. Look for gusts up to around 25 mph through sunset. Winds become light overnight before picking back up Friday morning ahead of our next system. A fast moving clipper will bring a chance for light snow, generally less than 1 inch, across parts of the area, followed by gusty north to northwest winds and another surge of cold air. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the single digits to mid teens, with a rebound on Sunday into the 20s to near 30 degrees. A few ensemble members bring a chance for light precip into the area Sunday afternoon and evening as warm air advection brings moisture into the low levels. At this time, ptype would be light freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Monday and Tuesday look much warmer as strong westerly H5 flow brings much warmer air into the low to mid levels. Tuesday's high temps will likely occur very early in the day as a cold front is expected to traverse the area during the afternoon and evening. North to northwest flow returns Wednesday into Thursday, with colder temps and a chance for snow. At this time, details are minimal; however, the pattern could support a somewhat active pattern heading into the end of the week. ...Light Snow Friday Night into Saturday Morning... A developing upper low moves out of Manitoba Friday afternoon and evening, then strengthens over the Northern Plains before moving into the Upper Midwest. This will bring an opportunity for light snow accumulations and gusty northwest winds. The progressive movement of the system will likely limit accumulations to 1 inch or less; however, isolated impacts are possible due to drifting snow and possibly some patchy blowing snow. It is worth noting, that a few solutions show the low developing a bit sooner, which could slow the system down. If this happens, snowfall totals could be slightly higher, with blowing snow potential being higher as a result. This alternate scenario would support advisory level impacts (10 percent chance) Friday evening and overnight into Saturday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026 VFR conditions and decreasing northwest winds are expected this evening across eastern ND and northwest MN. Fog and stratus is expected to develop as weak surface high moves through the region by late evening (after 04Z) into the early morning hours Friday, with best chances for MVFR to IFR impacts in northwest MN after 06Z. Where fog/stratus develops, conditions would improve after sunrise due to a combination of daytime mixing and towards late morning as west- southwest flow increases ahead of the next approaching low pressure system. This system brings increasing westerly winds by Friday afternoon, and increasing light snow chances late afternoon/evening mainly across southeast ND and west central MN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...DJR