FXUS63 KFSD 060452 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very light rain to freezing rain may develop over Southwest Minnesota this evening. With above freezing temperatures, any icing will be minimal. - Fog will again develop and spread through areas along and east of the James River into Tuesday. Dense fog and advisories may be possible. - A lingering sprinkle will cross the area on Tuesday, with no impactful weather and above normal temperatures through Thursday. - Trends continue to push any meaningful weather impacts at the end of the week and next weekend to the southeast. Temperatures may however very briefly drop below normal next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 THIS AFTERNOON: Considerable cloud cover continues through the region as mid-lvl troughing crosses the Northern Plains. Radar continues to show redevelopment of radar echoes associated with warm advection AOA 700 mb and increased dPVA. However, soundings show an increased dry layer below 12,000 ft which may prevent much of anything from reaching the ground. Temperatures with expansive cloud cover and generally light winds have struggled to rise, but we should continue to see temperatures warm through the 30s and 40s, warmest west of the James River Valley. TONIGHT: Water vapor this afternoon continues to show the sharpening western edge of mid-upr clouds signifying the arrival of the mid-lvl trough axis. Lift should continue to increase as even strong dPVA moves through the Tri-state area, potentially leading to an increase in precipitation and lowering of the cloud bases over southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa. However, there will remain a stubborn layer of dry air below the 5000 ft AGL ceilings suggesting that any precipitation may struggle to reach the ground. Thankfully, with temperatures above freezing and only minimal evening drops expected, any liquid should not refreeze on road contact, but we'll need to watch bridges or elevated surfaces. A bigger story will once again be the redevelopment of fog in areas along and east of the James River valley through the evening and overnight. As we've seen in past nights, dense fog will again be possible and advisories may be needed. TUESDAY: We'll continue to see an increase in mid-upr clouds into Tuesday as we'll remain on the cyclonic side of a strong jet moving through the Central Plains. As has been the case today, we may see a few sprinkles move eastward early on Tuesday, though warm surface temperatures again prevent and impactful icy conditions. Fog and stratus will again struggle to clear the area, and the increase in mid-lvl clouds again suggests highs only reach the 40s in most areas. WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Zonal flow takes on a bit of a southwesterly shift allowing warmer air to push further northeast on Wednesday. While there may be a bit of high level clouds around, temperatures should climb further into the 40s and even towards the 50s in areas west of I-29. The passage of a weak cool front Wednesday night allows for the influence of Canadian high pressure for Thursday. With dry conditions expected, highs fall a few degrees but remain above normal. FRIDAY-SUNDAY: We continue to see a downward trend in precipitation risks for Friday and Saturday in both deterministic, ensemble, and AI based forecasts. Greater emphasis for precipitation now appears focused through the Southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi river valley into Friday, with a sharper northern stream trough pushing mostly cold air southeast into the Tri-State area Friday and Saturday. Ensemble guidance probabilities for 0.10" of QPF have shifted downward considerably. The ECE has dropped from 60% to 15%, the GEFS from 40% to 20%, and the Canadian has consistently stayed low at 20%. All that said, some very light snow could still impact the region Friday, but a large impactful system seems less likely at this time. More certain now is a brief plunge of cold air on Saturday, expected to drop highs into the 20s. This will be a short lived cold spell as mid-lvl heights bounce quickly back upwards and without snowcover we'll see highs returning above normal into the following week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Fog is beginning to push into the highway-20 corridor late this evening. Not quite to KSUX but given how the fog is expanding to the west, think that KSUX will see fog over the coming hours. This same area of fog will continue to push northwards through the overnight hours. At the same time, there is a second area of fog that is located north of highway-14 across parts of east central and northeast South Dakota. This second area of fog will push southeastwards and make it into the area during the overnight hours as well. This looks to result in fog overspreading a large part of the area along and east of the James River Valley tonight. The fog will persist into the morning hours before pushing off to the east while dissipating. This will leave a quiet Tuesday afternoon and evening with light west/southwest winds in place to finish the TAF period. A small area of light rain showers is currently present on radar from KPQN to KMML. A small reduction in visibility is present, down to about 5SM in the showers. These showers will continue to push eastwards and exit the are over the next few hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for IAZ031-032. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dux AVIATION...Meyers