FXUS63 KLBF 031116 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 516 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions return to western and north central Nebraska today, and this persists into next week. - Near record temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty west winds will lead to increasing fire weather concerns across western Nebraska on Sunday afternoon. - The next threat for precipitation looks to arrive late next week, though confidence in any precipitation remains low (10-20%) for now. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Currently, a weak front bisects the area, with expansive stratus and patchy fog near and east of HWY 83 ahead of the boundary. Further west, mostly clear skies and weak westerly winds prevail. Temperatures range from the middle 20s to low 30s across the area. For today, an upper level ridge axis will translate overhead, with increasing subsidence aloft as this occurs. This will lead to clear skies today, helping to boost temperatures. Combined with this, warm advection returns, with weak westerly downslope flow establishing across the area. Highs today range from the lower 40s in north central Nebraska to near 60 degrees in southwest Nebraska. A weak warm front lifts across the area tonight, and could lead to another round of fog development overnight east of HWY 83. As the upper ridge axis begins to move off to the east, a quick moving shortwave begins to cross the Rockies. This brings increasing middle and high cloudiness tonight as moisture streams in aloft, allowing lows to remain in the upper 20s to 30s. The shortwave quickly departs late Sunday morning, with skies clearing into tomorrow afternoon. The low level warm advection regime persists into tomorrow as well, boosting H85 temperatures back above the 90th percentile as we head into tomorrow afternoon. As westerly flow strengthens, enough diurnal mixing will be achieved to push temperatures into the middle to upper 60s across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. Deterministic guidance continues to suggest that the current forecast could be on the low side, and this would have implications on expected minimum humidity values. This will also tap into stronger winds aloft, and momentum transfer suggests westerly gusts of 25 to 35 miles per hour tomorrow afternoon near and west of HWY 83. The combination of near record temperatures, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds will promote increasing fire concerns, especially across western Nebraska. This will need to be monitored closely, and fire headlines could be needed should confidence grow. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Zonal flow prevails aloft as we head into next week, with benign weather conditions expected to continue locally. The broad warm advection regime continues as well, keeping daily highs well above average in the 50s to low 60s each through midweek. Some fire concerns may continue as well, though confidence in this remains low for now. By late week, upper troughing begins to deepen across southern California, with a separate northern stream trough ejecting into the Four Corners region by Thursday. In response to this, southwest flow establishes across the Plains in advance of this low. The progression of this northern stream trough will drive any threat for precipitation locally, as it eventually ejects into the central Plains into Friday. Guidance is in surprisingly good agreement at this range with respect to the track of the upper low, keeping it off to the southeast of the area. This solution means the area would remain in the cold sector, and wintry precipitation could be an issue. As of now, guidance suggests the system will remain an open wave, and this could limit impacts somewhat should this come to fruition. Still, trends will need to be monitored closely and those with travel plans late week should pay close attention to future forecasts. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 520 AM CST Sat Jan 3 2026 Low stratus and patchy fog will continue to exit the area this morning, with VFR returning for terminals east of HWY 83 by this afternoon. The exception to this would be for areas east of HWY 281, where MVFR CIGs may linger through the afternoon. Expansion in stratus and fog is possible again tonight, though low confidence in impacts at KLBF and KVTN precludes inclusion for now. Winds remain light from the west into this afternoon, at 5kts or less. Winds then become southerly tonight, at 5 to 10kts. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Brown