FXUS64 KBRO 051750
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1150 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

 - Another round of fog is expected across the region late tonight
   into early tomorrow morning. 

 - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue into Thursday, with
   near record to record-breaking afternoon highs in the 
   mid/upper 80s likely. 

 - The passage of a cold front late this week will bring more
   seasonable temperatures heading into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Persistent low level southerly flow will continue to transport 
Gulf moisture towards the region. In combination with light winds 
and clear skies tonight, another round of fog development is 
expected late tonight into tomorrow morning. Probabilistic and 
high resolution guidance indicate the best potential for fog will 
reside over the Northern Ranchlands, although patchy fog with 
visibility near or below 3 miles cannot be ruled out across 
portions of the Rio Grande Valley as well. Locally dense fog
cannot be ruled out across portions of the region, especially
across the Northern Ranchlands. Any fog should dissipate by mid 
morning tomorrow. Favorable conditions for fog development will
likely continue each morning over the next few days.

Otherwise, above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions will
continue through the end of the week across all of Deep South
Texas. Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds return by mid to
late week in response to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of a
deepening upper level system translating across the Plains. This
system will send a cold front towards the region by the end of the
week, which will bring more seasonable temperatures heading into
the weekend. Low rain chances may return over the weekend, but
chances remain less than 20 percent and mainly along the immediate
coast and over the Gulf waters. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through late this evening. Wind
gusts up to 25 knots will persist through 23-00Z before falling
below 10 knots as the pressure gradient weakens. Another round of
patchy fog is expected late tonight into early tomorrow morning,
which may result in brief MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings.
Otherwise, expect VFR to prevail once again by mid to late morning
tomorrow with winds increasing towards the end of the 18Z TAF
cycle. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1150 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through mid
week over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre with generally low seas
and light to moderate southerly winds. Small Craft Exercise
Caution conditions return by Wednesday afternoon as the pressure
gradient tightens in response to a deepening system. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely on Thursday, and once again Friday
night into Saturday in wake of the passage of a cold front. Low 
rain chances (20% or less) return this weekend over the Gulf 
waters and Laguna Madre.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             83  67  84  66 /   0   0   0   0 
HARLINGEN               85  63  86  62 /   0   0   0   0 
MCALLEN                 87  66  88  66 /   0   0   0   0 
RIO GRANDE CITY         86  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0 
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      76  69  78  69 /   0   0   0   0 
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     81  65  84  65 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...22-Garcia