FXUS64 KHUN 101158 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 558 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 - A Flood Watch remains in effect until noon for Cullman, Marshall, and Jackson counties in northern Alabama. - Total rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch is forecast, with locally higher amounts around 1 inches possible. && .NEAR TERM... (Today) Issued at 218 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 The surface map at 08Z shows a frontal boundary from eastern TN and southwest along the I-59/20 corridor into central MS and eventually southwest LA. A couple of waves of low pressure were found along the boundary near Birmingham and Jackson MS. The LLJ was impinging the boundary with surface based showers and thunderstorms expanding in coverage in central and southern MS and AL. More widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms associated with the upper jet across AR, northern MS into TN was above the surface layer and elevated. This rain will shift east across north AL and southern middle TN through mid to late morning as these surface waves lift northeast and drag a cold front southeast by this afternoon. We will maintain the Flood Watch for now, although it appears that intense convective heavy rainfall will remain tied to the boundary to our south. However, a few pockets of heavier rain will occur as the stratiform rainfall shifts east today. Temperatures will be held in the lower to middle 60s due to clouds and rainfall today. Winds will shift to the northwest at 5-15 mph behind the cold front with gusts around 20 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Rainfall should come to an end by Saturday evening, but mostly cloudy conditions will linger into the evening hours, before clearing. Colder and drier air will push southeast behind the front. Lows in the lower to mid 30s are expected. A return to chilly conditions are expected on Sunday, despite abundant sunshine. Highs in the upper 30s to around 45 degrees are expected in most areas. With high pressure building east into the area, winds should decouple by Sunday night. This will be a chilly night, as lows could drop into the lower to mid 20s will the strong cold air advection seen earlier in the day. This area of high pressure builds over the southeast Monday. However, the flow in the boundary layer becomes westerly during the day. This and abundant sunshine should allow highs to climb into the 45 to 50 degree range. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026 Monday night the surface high shifts slightly further southeast, but should keep winds very light over the area. As a large surface low moves southeast from central Canada into the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday into Tuesday night, it will drag a strong cold front southward that approaches northern Alabama Tuesday night. This should warm things up on Tuesday into the 55 to 60 degrees. Lows should not drop as low either with cloud cover expected ahead of the front, only dropping into the 35 to 40 degree range mainly. Models then move a much stronger longwave rough axis aloft southeast from the Great Lakes region. This pushes a front southward and through the area Wednesday afternoon. Expect scattered light showers to develop due to the strong forcing and just enough moisture in the atmosphere ahead of it. Models differ concerning lingering moisture near the upper low as it pushes southeast towards Thursday around daybreak, before it pushes east into the Carolinas. If the higher moisture content turns out correct, there may be a window for some light snowfall accumulation towards daybreak on Thursday. However, for now, only keep a low chance of precipitation in the forecast through 1 Am on Thursday. After temperatures drop into the upper 20s towards daybreak on Thursday, strong cold air advection should keep highs in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 A frontal boundary draped from NE TN, to across NW AL, to SW LA will move to the SE across the area this morning. A large area of showers from east of Memphis, over much of TN and northern and central MS/AL should move eastward across the region today. CIG and/or VSBY reductions to MVFR and IFR were widespread with the showers. At times LIFR (CIGs <500ft, VSBY <1SM) were occurring. Conditions should gradually improve to MVFR, then VFR as the showers and low clouds move east of the region. Winds will become northerly, then from the NW increasing to 10-15kt with some higher gusts this afternoon into the evening. Winds should subside to 5-10kt after midnight. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flood Watch until noon CST today for ALZ008-010-016. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....KTW LONG TERM....KTW AVIATION...RSB