FXUS64 KLCH 052330 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 530 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High temps ranging in the 70s return today through Friday with potential for nocturnal fog as onshore flow resumes. - Low end rain chances return late Wednesday or early Thursday with a disturbance developing in central Texas. There is a low end risk for severe weather Friday. - Slightly cooler temperatures will take place this weekend after the passage of a cold front Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Morning fog has finally cleared (for the most part) for areas north of I-10. For those along and south, a bank of marine fog is moving inland, dropping visibilities down once again. Increasingly warm and humid air will be moving in throughout the day on elevating southerly winds, and area observations currently report dewpoints in the 50s. These dewpoints will steadily increase, reaching the mid 60s by Tuesday. This increase in moisture, combined with a lower inversion, could assist with another round of dense fog. There is higher confidence for areas along and south of I-10, where the best moisture pools, but areas of patchy dense fog could be possible as far north as Alexandria. A Dense Fog Advisory hasn't been issued as of yet, but one may be issued with the afternoon package. Expect a wash, rinse and repeat of the forecast through the coming days. Warming temps and overnight fog chances. The next weather system develops into Wednesday with rain chances to return early in the longterm period. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Broad scale lift develops into Thursday on increasing gradient flow as a low pressure center quickly develops in the south Plains. This shortwave pulse races across the ArkLaTex rather quickly, carried on by upper jet max. While moisture will be in place, there will be limited opportunity for rainfall development, thus rain chances and totals are very low for Thursday. A much more amplified trof develops into Friday with a frontal system moving through in attendance. Currently, all guidance keeps this system as a very positively tilted trofing system, removing much opportunity to localized shear across the forecast area. However, there will be plenty of speed shear with 30 to 40 knots of speed shear off the surface. Forecast CAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, so there is a case for a high (speed) shear, low CAPE event on Friday. There remains quite a bit of question for other details therein. Continue to monitor for trends. Northwest winds develop early Saturday, ushering in a very cool and dry airmass to end the weekend and longterm period. 11/Calhoun && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026 Current mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will gradually fill in and become MVFR to IFR as we approach midnight. In addition, fog, which is already ongoing near the coast, will spread inland and begin to affect some of the I-10 terminals near the midnight hour. After midnight, ceilings will continue to lower while fog continues to fill in and spread north. All I-10 terminals should fall to IFR/LIFR after midnight through at least sunrise. Conditions at AEX will be slightly better but fog is still anticipated. Conditions should improve through the 14-16Z time frame tomorrow morning as winds begin to pick up and become gusty, allowing fog to break up quickly and ceilings to lift to VFR by midday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 55 77 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 59 76 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 59 77 62 77 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 60 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ055-073-074-152>154-241>243-252>254. TX...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ615-616. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-436- 450-452-455. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...17