FXUS64 KMRX 061133
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Limited rain chances return on Tuesday, followed by drier and 
milder conditions Wednesday and Thursday. 

- A system will approach the area Thursday night into Friday with 
mountain waves likely in the mountains and foothills.

- Widespread showers and possibly a few storms are expected Friday 
into Saturday, followed by drier and cooler conditions. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Currently, zonal flow is in place aloft with a weak shortwave and 
area of low pressure moving out of the central Great Plains. As this 
system tracks to our north, southerly flow will continue the 
seasonally mild conditions we have seen. Some rain chances will 
exist, but moisture is pretty limited overall. Low-level flow will 
also increase to near 40 kts but be from a more westerly direction, 
leading to only synoptically strong winds. By Wednesday, high 
pressure will build back in with ridging also leading to warmer and 
drier conditions. On Thursday, ridging will remain in place across 
the region but with focus turning to our west. A negatively tilted 
shortwave will eject out of the Rockies with a deepening low 
pressure system developing and tracking towards the central 
Mississippi River Valley. 

This system is expected to become an open wave with a broad low-
level jet of 60 kts or greater and a tight MSLP gradient. This will 
lead to strong southerly flow and broad moisture advection. The two 
main concerns with this system will be potential for organized 
severe convection and mountain wave high winds. Based on the overall 
timing of its associated front, the greater threat for severe 
convection remains well to our west. However, the overall track, 
MSLP gradient, and strength of the low-level jet certainly raise 
confidence for mountain wave high winds Thursday night into Friday.
While instability will likely remain to our west, the strength of 
the low-level jet could lead to showers or isolated storms bringing 
winds down to the surface ahead of the frontal passage by Saturday. 
Hopefully, this system will provide widespread rain to the region as 
now over one half of our area is in moderate or severe drought. 
Behind the front, seasonally cooler weather will return by Sunday. 
Depending on how much moisture lingers, some light snow showers may 
be possible in the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

MVFR CIGs are currently observed at TYS and CHA. TRI is expected
to go down to MVFR in a few hours. MVFR CIGs are expected to 
linger at all terminals through the afternoon. VFR conditions will
start to return around sunset and MVFR CIGs are expected again
late tonight. It is possible that CHA will go down to IFR CIGs
today but confidence is low. Southwesterly winds will be gusty 
this afternoon mainly at TYS and TRI. LLWS has been added for TYS
and TRI based on observed winds aloft. Rain chances are too low to
include in TAFs but there is a chance for a brief shower through
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  50  68  48 /  20   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  50  66  43 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  48  65  43 /  20   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              61  49  62  37 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...McD