FXUS64 KTSA 041744 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1144 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1144 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 - Above average temperatures expected through the upcoming week. - Dry conditions are likely through Wednesday. - Fire weather potential increases Monday, especially for northeast Oklahoma, with breezy afternoon winds, warm temperatures, and low relative humidity values. - Rain and isolated thunder chances increase Wednesday night and Thursday with approaching storm system. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Fog has finally eroded late this morning, but low-level cloud still remain for parts of southeast OK and northwest AR. For the remainder of the daytime, generally low-impact weather will persist. However, will still be monitoring fire weather conditions through the afternoon, especially west of Highway 75 in northeast OK. Latest surface observations in the region show southerly winds beginning to increase due to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph will be common. Fire spread rates around 100 ft/min will be possible, especially across Osage, Pawnee, and western portions of Creek counties. A much more mild evening and night is forecast tonight as light southerly winds prevail. Overnight lows will range from low-mid 40s for most locations. Cannot completely rule out some patchy fog early Monday morning where clouds are able to clear and winds are light enough. Otherwise, the light winds and residual high clouds should help limit fog potential compared to this morning. Mejia && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Sunday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail over much of the Southern Plains through the first half of the upcoming workweek. At the surface, the pressure gradient will remain tight during the daytime Monday as an area of low pressure develops and strengthens over the High Plains. Southerly wind gusts around 30-35 mph appear likely, especially across northeast OK through the afternoon. Despite moisture being transported into the area, fire weather concerns will quickly arise late in the morning and through the afternoon as a dryline moves eastward across central OK and into portions of east-central and northeast OK, west of Highway 75. Relative humidity values will fall between 30-35 percent in the afternoon behind the dryline. Although the gusty winds will cause limited fire weather concerns for most spots, the more heightened concerns for fire weather will be across Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Okfuskee, and western portions of Tulsa and Okmulgee counties. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm Monday through Wednesday, with afternoon highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s each afternoon, or about 20+ degrees above average. A weak and dry cold front will push through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. But with very little moisture to work with and virtually no cold air behind it, the boundary will be more of a northerly wind shift than anything else. Southerly winds will quickly return late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. The quasi-zonal flow aloft will transition to southwest flow by Wednesday evening as a Baja upper-level low moves onshore and approaches the Plains. Modest to strong lifting and increasing low-level moisture ahead of the system will bring an increased chance of shower and a few thunderstorms to the area beginning Wednesday night. Consensus in models and ensembles have slowed down the progression of the low and rainfall timing slightly, as well as have produced a slight uptick in QPF compared to 24 hours ago. There are still discrepancies in models with not only the timing, but the evolution, and orientation of the mid/upper level pattern. For example, the 00z EC solution swings the shortwave trough across the Plains, ahead of a separate, parent trough/low following behind it. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS solution integrates the two troughs together as they swing across the Plains. Both solutions have fairly different outcomes with both rainfall timing and where the heavier rain axis will set up. Needless to say, will need to continue monitoring trends and will hopefully have a better handle of what is to come over the next couple of days. Given the uncertainties, went ahead and populated the latest NBM solution. For now, rainfall amounts still look to stay generally around an inch or less, locally up to two inches, with highest amounts focused on the southeast half of the CWA. A cold front is still on track to push through the forecast area behind the departing system on Friday morning/afternoon. This front will cause temperatures to fall closer seasonal average by the upcoming weekend, with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s and lows in the mid-upper 20s and lower 30s. Precipitation chances Friday-Sunday look slim at this time. Mejia && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026 Conditions are improving over in NW AR where low clouds and fog wrecked havoc on the forecast and aircraft ops. However, some low cloud does remain per latest satellite imagery mainly along the Arkansas River Valley from MKO to FSM, with the MVFR cigs possibly persisting through mid-afternoon (~21Z). There is a possibility that they could hang on longer requiring an adjustment. VFR conditions are forecast across eastern OK and western AR once low clouds go away through the evening. There are hints in the data that some patchy low cloud and/or fog could return toward daybreak mainly across W AR. Some mention was added to the TAFs, including a tempo IFR cig mention at KFSM per latest CAM guidance, but this is a low confidence forecast. Lacy && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 44 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 39 71 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 47 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 38 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 42 68 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 BYV 42 66 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 43 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 42 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 F10 46 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 HHW 42 68 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...30